Now that the midterm elections are over (except for counting of million of mail-in ballots, a massive moral hazard risk), President Biden has proclaimed that he isn’t changing any of his horrid policies. And apparently, neither is The Federal Reserve.
Ever since the financial crisis of 2008 and the election of President Obama and a Democrat Congressional sweep, the US has embraced Modern Monetary Theory (MMT or borrow, print and spend without consequence). And between the financial crisis and the Covid crisis of 2008, we have seen an increase in US public debt from $10.7 trillion in Q4 2008 to a staggering $30.6 trillion as of Q2 2022. That is a staggering increase of 186% in only 14 years.
How about US Money stock? M2 Money stock has grown by 162.5% since the beginning of 2009 and the “Blue Wave” of 2008. And nothing has been the same.
The Covid outbreak in early 2020, we saw Fed money printing that has never seen before … or since. But one thing is for sure, M2 Money Velocity (GDP/M2) is near all-time lows.
Then we have headline US inflation as a function of M2 Money growth YoY.
And it is the midterm election “silly season” where no politician will discuss the complete and utter mess they have made. According to US Debt Clock, US national debt is already up to $31.26 trillion (OMG!), but the REALLY scary number that not a single politician will address is UNFUNDED LIABILITIES OF $172.4 TRILLION.
Can we go back to the gold standard? Or silver standard? Or ANY standard for that matter??
Instead, we have porous borders and patently UNSOUND money, thanks to MMT.
In addition to rampant 40-year highs in inflation, we have the Clark Griswold of the economy, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, slamming his foot on the economic breaks to combat inflation created by Biden’s energy mandates and reckless Federal spending (like the aforementioned, laughable “Inflation Reduction Act.”
So, Biden helps creates massive inflation and Powell and the Gang counterattacked by raising their target rate with more to come (at least until May 2023). And with the implied Fed Funds rate soaring (red line), we are seeing the FANG stocks (Facebook or Meta, Amazon, Netflix and Google) falling more rapidly (white line) than the S&P 500 index. Which is also falling like a rock (yellow line). All this is happening as M2 Money YoY crashes and burns.
How about growth versus value under Cousin Eddie and Clark Griswold? The Vanguard Growth ETF and Vanguard Real Estate ETF are plunging with Fed tightening (red line). Vanguard’s Value ETV (yellow line) is down too, but not by as much.
Yes, Washington DC elites. The gift that keeps on giving … bad things.
Thanks to my former GMU student Andrew Edwards for the Cousin Eddie suggestion!
US Q3 GDP numbers are out and they are … meh. Only Biden and Karine Jean-Pierre would cheer about 1.8% real GDP growth. At least real GDP growth wasn’t negative!
Real GDP rose 2.6% after -0.6% in Q2 and 1.8% YoY. But the most interesting data bit is the GDP Price Index. It fell to 4.1% in Q3 down from a whopping 9.0% in Q2.
But wait! Also declining at a stall speed is M2 Money.
And brace yourself for a cold winter. Heating oil is UP 162% under Biden.
Like virtually everything in Biden’s economy, the price of turkey (often the main staple for Thanksgiving dinner) is way up in price. Turkey prices are UP 73% since last year. The price per pound of an 8- to 16-pound turkey has risen to $1.99, a 73% increase from $1.15 last year, according to USDA data.
Speaking of turkeys, in recent speeches, President Joe Biden has been misleadingly taking credit for cutting federal deficits by historic amounts, though most of the reduction in deficits is the result of expiring emergency pandemic spending. Deficits fell between fiscal year 2020 and 2021 far less than initially projected after Biden added to them with more emergency pandemic and infrastructure spending.
And apparently Biden (or Jill) haven’t looked at the data recently. While there was a momentary budget surplus in April 2022, the Federal budget deficit has increased dramatically in September 2022 to the worst deficit since March 2021 shortly after Biden took office.
The only thing that is strong under Biden is the labor market. But even the accomplishment is grossly misleading. Under Trump, the U-3 unemployment rate was 3.5% in February 2020 just before Covid-13 struck and the Fauci-ites shut down the economy causing unemployment to rise to 14.7% in April 2020. Most of the reduction in the unemployment rate was the result of the economy slowly opening back up under Trump. When Biden took over, the unemployment rate was 6.4% and it is finally back to Trump’s 3.5% in September 2022. At least Biden didn’t screw that up, as Obama has said. Perhaps that should be his new midterm campaign slogan!
But Biden DID screw up the labor market with Bidenflation. REAL average hourly earnings growth (yellow line) is NEGATIVE..
And yes, the US is rapidly approaching recession which will result in a spike in unemployment. So much for Biden’s “Strong as hell!” economy.
The US Empire State Manufacturing Survey General Business Conditions SA index fell to -9.1 in October, continuing a downward trend along with the downward trend in Fed M2 Money stock growth.
And the global sovereign debt market is showing fear as 10-year sovereign yields drop -10 basis points. The UK 10-year is down -36.8 bps! The US is down only -6.6 bps this morning.
The US CPI for electricity is up 24% under Nuclear Joe as The Fed continues to leave their balance sheet relatively untouched.
You might have to bail on the stock market to stay warm this winter, but it is a shame that the S&P 500 index is down -25.3% in 2022 as The Fed counterattacks Bidenflation.
Bidenflation is just killing us. Now rising prices and The Fed’s counterattack are killing retail sales for American consumers.
US retail sales were sluggish last month, suggesting shoppers are becoming more guarded about discretionary purchases in the worst inflationary environment in decades.
The value of overall retail purchases were little changed in September after an upwardly revised 0.4% gain in August, Commerce Department data showed Friday. Excluding gasoline, retail sales were up 0.1%. The figures aren’t adjusted for inflation.
The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a 0.2% advance in retail sales. Seven of 13 retail categories declined last month, according to the report, including a drop in receipts at auto dealers, furniture outlets, sporting goods stores and electronics merchants. The value of sales at gas stations fell 1.4%, reflecting cheaper fuel prices, but they’re now climbing.
At least Export Prices YoY are down below 10%! I hope exporting inflation to the world isn’t Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s idea of good foreign policy.
My favorite headline of the day is “Macron Reminds Biden to Think Before Speaking: “Biden’s Reckless Rhetoric puts World at Risk”“
To begin with, headline inflation remains high at 8.2% YoY while CORE inflation (headline less food and energy) rose to 6.6% YoY.
Meanwhile, REAL average weekly earnings growth YoY further declined to -3.8% YoY.
On the bond front, the Bank of America ICE bond volatility index rose to Great Recession/banking crisis levels (also achieved during the Covid government shutdowns).
But back to the low-ball BLS inflation data. The biggest gain in price is … fuel oil at 33.1% YoY. Food at home rose 13.0% while gasoline rose 18.2%. Rent, according to the BLS, rose 6.6%.
Biden has probably been told by Ron Klain and Susan Rice that this is a good report.
Another casualty of The Fed’s tightening and reduction in M2 Money supply are … the mortgage and housing markets. The US mortgage rate has soared to 7.04% (highest since 2000) and mortgage DEMAND has fallen to the lowest level in recorded history.
Here is my chart from yesterday showing the inversion of the US Treasury 10yr-2yr curve and decline in the S&P 500 index as The Fed tightens.
And then we have this chart showing the most-extreme foreign Treasury outflow since March 2020.
At least The Fed is predicted to start cutting rates again in March 2020.
Yes, Biden and Powell have reenacted Kevin’s famous chili spill. And Ben Bernanke, the creator of QE from late 2008 was just award the Nobel Prize in economics for distorting financial markets.
Confounded Interest - Anthony B. Sanders 
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