‘Fragile’ Treasury market is at risk of ‘large scale forced selling’ or surprise that leads to breakdown (Fed tighening to fight Bidenflation as a recession becomes imminent, Dow Futures UP 770 Points For Monday)

Things are getting interesting in DC, to say the least. The US is 100% likely to face a recession in the next 12 months while The Federal Reserve is on its crusade to fight inflation caused by … The Federal Reserve, Biden’s green energy shenanigans and massive, irresponsible Federal spending that even Former Obama economist Lawrence Summers warned would cause inflation. So what will The Fed do? Lower rates and expand their assets purchases to fight the impending recession OR keep tightening to fight Bidenflation? But where we are now is that the fixed-income market could be in big, big trouble.

According to MarketWatch, the world’s deepest and most liquid fixed-income market is in big, big trouble.

For months, traders, academics, and other analysts have fretted that the $23.7 trillion Treasuries market might be the source of the next financial crisis. Then last week, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen acknowledged concerns about a potential breakdown in the trading of government debt and expressed worry about “a loss of adequate liquidity in the market.” Now, strategists at BofA Securities have identified a list of reasons why U.S. government bonds are exposed to the risk of “large scale forced selling or an external surprise” at a time when the bond market is in need of a reliable group of big buyers.

“We believe the UST market is fragile and potentially one shock away from functioning challenges” arising from either “large scale forced selling or an external surprise,” said BofA strategists Mark Cabana, Ralph Axel and Adarsh Sinha. “A UST breakdown is not our base case, but it is a building tail risk.”

In a note released Thursday, they said “we are unsure where this forced selling might come from,” though they have some ideas. The analysts said they see risks that could arise from mutual-fund outflows, the unwinding of positions held by hedge funds, and the deleveraging of risk-parity strategies that were put in place to help investors diversify risk across assets.

In addition, the events which could surprise bond investors include acute year-end funding stresses; a Democratic sweep of the midterm elections, which is not currently a consensus expectation; and even a shift in the Bank of Japan’s yield curve control policy, according to the BofA strategists.

The BOJ’s yield curve control policy, aimed at keeping the 10-year yield on the country’s government bonds at around zero, is being pushed to a breaking point.

Well. Bidenflation certainly isn’t helping, but Statist Economist and Cheerleader Janet Yellen can’t bring herself to blame green energy policies, rampant Federal spending or irresponsible Federal Reserve policies for the crisis.

You will note the differences between today and the financial crisis of 2008-2009. The financial crisis gave us a massive surge in government securities liquidity thanks to then Fed Chair Ben Bernanke imitating Japan’s Central Bank and buying US government securities. Fast forward to today and the liquidity index hasn’t budged much since 2010 (except for a little blip around the Covid Fed intervention of early 2020), but we are now seeing near 40-year highs in inflation and a barely declining Fed balance sheet. And M2 Money YoY (mostly commercial bank deposits) are crashing.

I am guessing that The Fed will pivot given that stock futures are way up for Monday. The Dow Jones mini is up 770 points and the S&P 500 mini is up 88.75 points.

Bond market futures (specifically the US Ultra Bond) is down for Monday, meaning yields will be climbing.

While perusing MarketWatch, I noticed this headline from the uber-attention whore Nouriel Roubini: “New Yorkers are ‘stupid’ for moving to Texas, Florida: Wall Street’s ‘Dr. Doom’.” Seriously? Nouriel, you aren’t talking to friends in a Bleeker Street bar. Like Bernanke.

I remember giving a speech at The Brookings Institute in Washington DC. Talk about stranger in a strange land. One person who I was debating got frustrated and said “You are such a … Republican!!!” As if that was the worst slur he could throw at me.

Turkey Prices UP 73% Since Last Year As Biden Takes Credit For Biggest Deficit Reductions In US History (Economy NOT “Strong As Hell!”, But Rapidly Approaching Recession)

Like virtually everything in Biden’s economy, the price of turkey (often the main staple for Thanksgiving dinner) is way up in price. Turkey prices are UP 73% since last year. The price per pound of an 8- to 16-pound turkey has risen to $1.99, a 73% increase from $1.15 last year, according to USDA data.

Speaking of turkeys, in recent speeches, President Joe Biden has been misleadingly taking credit for cutting federal deficits by historic amounts, though most of the reduction in deficits is the result of expiring emergency pandemic spending. Deficits fell between fiscal year 2020 and 2021 far less than initially projected after Biden added to them with more emergency pandemic and infrastructure spending.

And apparently Biden (or Jill) haven’t looked at the data recently. While there was a momentary budget surplus in April 2022, the Federal budget deficit has increased dramatically in September 2022 to the worst deficit since March 2021 shortly after Biden took office.

The only thing that is strong under Biden is the labor market. But even the accomplishment is grossly misleading. Under Trump, the U-3 unemployment rate was 3.5% in February 2020 just before Covid-13 struck and the Fauci-ites shut down the economy causing unemployment to rise to 14.7% in April 2020. Most of the reduction in the unemployment rate was the result of the economy slowly opening back up under Trump. When Biden took over, the unemployment rate was 6.4% and it is finally back to Trump’s 3.5% in September 2022. At least Biden didn’t screw that up, as Obama has said. Perhaps that should be his new midterm campaign slogan!

But Biden DID screw up the labor market with Bidenflation. REAL average hourly earnings growth (yellow line) is NEGATIVE..

And yes, the US is rapidly approaching recession which will result in a spike in unemployment. So much for Biden’s “Strong as hell!” economy.

Two turkeys taking a stroll, but I would rather listen to the shorter turkey. At least the speeches would be coherent.

My Kuroda! Dow UP 774 Points And 10Y Treasury Yield Down -2.2 BPS As Japan’s Central Bank Intervenes To Prop Up Currency (Options Expiration Likely Explanation For Stock Surge)

My Kuroda!

Wall Street saw another day of stunning reversals, with stocks rallying after a Treasury selloff sputtered. The yen jumped as Japan intervened again to prop up the currency.

After many twists and turns, the S&P 500 pushed solidly into the green and headed for its best week since June as 10-year yields fell from the highest since 2007.

Probably because The Fed is likely to pivot with impending recession. The Dow is up 774 points this Friday. And today was a huge option expiration day!!

And the 10-year Treasury yield fell -2.2 basis points.

Here is the result of Japan’s intervention.

But today’s numbers were largely monthly stock index option expiration.

Why did it fall upon Powell to be the wielder of the Fed tightening scimitar? Why didn’t Yellen? Because “Good Girls Don’t.” But Powell did.

Have a nice weekend. I will be rooting for Ohio State to annihilate the Iowa Hawkeyes at noon on Saturday.

Bloomberg Recession Probability Is 100% Over Next 12 Months, Conference Board Registers Third Straight Negative Read (Here Comes The Night!)

To quote Van Morrison, “Here comes the night.”

Bloomberg’s recession probability over next 12 months is … 100%.

And how about the Conference Board’s Leading index of 10 economic indicators YoY? Third negative read ALWAYS followed by recession.

The Federal Reserve may be forced to pivot. This may be one reason why the Dow is up 565 points today (+1.86%) as recession and pain become ever more likely.

Look at commercial banks deposits. Wonder why liquidity is drying up?

And to paraphrase Van Morrison, Biden/Pelosi/Schumer please go.

And to paraphrase Van Morrison, Biden/Pelosi/Schumer please go. Powell too.

Need to hear Them’s “Gloria” for the weekend.

The Fed’s Tighten Up! Housing Market Suffers A Stroke (While C&I Lending Still Strong At 14.1% YoY In September)

One of my friends on Wall Street wrote my yesterday claiming “The 10-year Treasury yield is set to crash. Brace for impact!” Then I logged into Bloomberg this AM and saw the 10-year Treasury yield up almost 10 basis points (although it is down -2 BPS at 10:20am). Did markets not read his comments?? Maybe they did!

Well, The Fed is doing the Tighten Up. That is, The Fed is FINALLY removing their excessive monetary stimulus left over from the Bernanke Blowout (2008 adopting Japan’s print ’till you drop model).

But as The Fed removes their monetary stimulus (rate increases), we are seeing negative effects in the housing market. I call this chart “The X Factor.”

The US Treasury 10-year yield is up to 4.3% this morning, a far cry from 1.804% when Biden was crowned as President on January 20, 2021. The 30-year mortgage rate is up from 3.67% on Coronation Day to 7.32% yesterday, an increase of … 100% (that is, the 30-year mortgage rate has doubled under Biden). At the same time, Existing Home Sales YoY have gone from -2.41% in January 2021 to -23.79% in September 2022. THAT is a HUGE decline!

University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment for housing for 77 in January 2021 to 39 in November 2022. That is a -49% decline in consumer confidence. Also a big decline.

But going back to my pal’s email, he also said that The Fed is unwinding its balance sheet at a dangerously rapid rate (orange line). Relative to just increasing it, I would agree with him. But The Fed’s balance sheet is barely declining to my eyes. The troubling thing for housing is that inflation is so hot that REAL average hourly earnings YoY (yellow line) has fallen from +0.24% growth YoY on January 25, 2021 to a horrific -2.80% YoY rate in September 2022.

While I will not reveal my friend’s name (who works at a famous hedge fund), I will recommend Bill Carson, my former colleague at Deutsche Bank. While we might agree on everything, his site is worthy of a good read.

Bill’s point to me is that lending is still hot (at least commercial and industrial lending or C&I) while The Fed’s balance sheet remains in force (green line).

The Fed has a lot more work to do if they want to cool the commercial lending market. They have successfully slowed down the residential mortgage market.

Another Saturday High! US Mortgage Hits 7.20%, Highest Since 2000 As Fed Counterattacks Bidenflation (US Core Inflation Highest Since 1982)

Another Saturday high for the Biden Administration. Americans got less money thanks to Bidenflation.

The US 30yr Mortgage rate just hit a new high since 2000 as The Federal Reserve counterattacks the highest core inflation rate (6.60%) since 1982.

According to the Taylor Rule (which The Fed has chosen to ignore), a 6.60% core inflation rate implied a Fed target rate of 12.40%. Not likely since Fed Funds Futures data points to …

A maximum target rate of 4.963% at the May 2023 FOMC meeting, significantly lower than the needed rate of 12.40%. The Fed is like the world’s worst bar bouncer.

Rather than accepting blame for the horrific inflation rate crushing the American middle class and low wage workers, Biden is twisting the night away.

Fed Fireball! Fed Swaps Lean Toward Back-to-Back Three-Quarter-Point Hikes After Red-hot September Inflation Report (75 Basis Point Hike For Next 2 FOMC Meetings)

Fed Fireball!

* Fed Swaps Lean Toward Back-to-Back Three-Quarter-Point Hikes
* Hotter-than-expected September inflation data spark shift

(Bloomberg) — The market for wagers on the Federal Reserve’s policy rate is leaning toward pricing back-to-back 75 basis point rate hikes in the next two central bank meetings after consumer prices rose more than forecast in September.

The rate on the November overnight index swap contract rose to 3.86%, more than 75 basis points above the current effective fed funds rate, while the one referring to December climbed to 4.50%. A total of 142 basis points of rate hikes are now priced in for the next two policy meetings, just short of consecutive three-quarter-point hikes.

Prior to the inflation data, OIS markets were leaning toward the central bank cooling the pace of tightening to a 50 basis point move in December. At Wednesday’s close, swaps priced in around 130 basis points of hikes over the remaining of the year, which is equivalent to 55 basis points for December.

The market also priced in a higher eventual peak for the policy rate, with the March 2023 contract touching 4.864%.

The CPI data was “clearly a shock for the markets and the markets are off because of it,” Seth Carpenter, chief global economist at Morgan Stanley said on Bloomberg television. “There is persistence, particularly in the services side of inflation.”

Excluding food and energy, the Consumer Price Index increased 6.6% from a year ago, the highest level since 1982, Labor Department data showed Thursday. From a month earlier, the core CPI climbed 0.6% for a second straight month.

The Fed has raised its policy rate five times since March, most recently to a range of 3%-3.25% in September, after dropping the lower bound to 0% two years earlier at the onset of the pandemic.

The Fed Funds Futures data is pointing further Fed rate hikes with a turnaround in March 2023.

And with that awful inflation report and the likely Fed counterattack, the two year US Treasury yield has risen to 4.4361%, the highest since The Great Recession and banking crisis.

Fed Fireball! Comin’ at ya!!

Biden and Powell should appear on Saturday Night Live as the joint Debbie Downer. Or Democrat Downer.

US Core Inflation Seen Returning to 40-Year High as Rents Rise (Producer Price Index Higher Than Expected At 8.5% YoY)

The US Producer Price Index (Final Demand) printed at a higher than expected 8.5% YoY, throwing cold water on the notion that inflation is “transitory.”

A key US inflation measure due Thursday is set to return to a four-decade high, underscoring broad and elevated price pressures that are pushing the Federal Reserve toward yet another large interest-rate hike next month.

The so-called core consumer price index that excludes food and energy is projected to rise 0.4% in September from the prior month and 6.5% from a year earlier, matching the rate seen in March that was the highest since 1982.

The overall CPI, however, is expected to decelerate to a still-rapid 8.1% annual pace, restrained by a decline in gasoline prices, based on the median estimate.

Meanwhile, rents are soaring.

Biden’s policies are sending me to the poorhouse with killer inflation.

The Perils Of Fed Tightening 2: US Mortgage Rates Climb To Highest Since 2000, Mortgage Demand Falls To Lowest In Recorded History (Great Job DC!!)

Happy Columbus Day!

As I discussed yesterday in my post entitled “The Perils Of Fed Tightening In One Chart (Or Sweet Home DC!) Treasury Yield Curve Remains In Reversion And Stock Market Declining As Fed Reduces Money Supply Growth,” The Federal Reserve is tightening its monetary policies to combat 40-year highs in US inflation caused by 1) Biden’s anti-fossil fuels mandates, 2) excessive and reckless spending by Biden and Congress and 3) excessive monetary stimulus from The Federal Reserve.

Another casualty of The Fed’s tightening and reduction in M2 Money supply are … the mortgage and housing markets. The US mortgage rate has soared to 7.04% (highest since 2000) and mortgage DEMAND has fallen to the lowest level in recorded history.

Here is my chart from yesterday showing the inversion of the US Treasury 10yr-2yr curve and decline in the S&P 500 index as The Fed tightens.

And then we have this chart showing the most-extreme foreign Treasury outflow since March 2020.

At least The Fed is predicted to start cutting rates again in March 2020.

Yes, Biden and Powell have reenacted Kevin’s famous chili spill. And Ben Bernanke, the creator of QE from late 2008 was just award the Nobel Prize in economics for distorting financial markets.

Biden Releasing 10 Million More Barrels of Oil From US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (Reserve DOWN -35% Under Biden Before Additional Release, Foodstuffs UP 50%, Heating Oil UP 130%, Gasoline UP 61.4%, Public Debt UP 12%)

Nothing from nothing. The should be the campaign motto for the midterm elections.

What do we have? Regular gasoline prices are UP 61.4% under Biden, the strategic petroleum reserve is DOWN -35% before Biden’s latest release of another 10 million barrels. Foodstuffs are UP 50% under Clueless Joe, and heating oil futures are UP 130% under dementia Joe.

And thanks to free-spending Joe, Nancy and Chuckie, US public debt is at $31.1 TRILLION. That is ANOTHER 12% in national debt under the 4 Horsemen of the Economic Apocalypse.

For an additional 12% in national debt (to be paid by our children and grandchildren), we have crippling inflation.

Great job DC!