Face it, nothing has been the same since 1) the Covid economic shutdowns, 2) the massive spending spree by Congress, the massive expansion of monetary stimulus by The Federal Reserve and 3) the election of Unaffordable Joe Biden,
The latest University of Michigan consumer survey is out and it is ugly, reflecting Biden’s ugly approval ratings. A sentiment value of 100 is a good baseline and US consumers were about at 100. Then Covid struck and the ensuing economic and school shutdowns (thank a lot Randi Weingarten, President of the American Federation of Teachers). Then we have the selection of Joe Biden as President, the WORST President in history.
Housing sentiment? It is now near the lowest level since 1982.
Here is Parks and Recreation’s Leslie Knope, one of the only political non-donor class that still likes unaffordable Joe. But big Democrat donors LOVE Biden doling out billions to them!
Treasury Secretary Janet “The Evil Hobbit” Yellen is a Statist. She can only think of an all powerful central government calling the shots since the private sector and individual liberties are something to be eliminated.
Yellen has mostly declined to spell out what her department would do if Congress fails to raise or suspend the debt limit before the Treasury finds itself unable to cover all the government’s obligations.
Back in Mordor on The Potomac, President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy postponed a meeting on the debt ceiling set for Friday. People familiar with the talks said the postponement was a sign that staff-level talks were yielding progress.
Biden and congressional Republicans have been locked in disagreement for weeks over raising the US federal government’s $31.4 trillion borrowing limit. GOP leaders have demanded promises of future spending cuts before they approve a higher ceiling. Biden has jinsisted on a “clean” increase, with budget talks kept separate.
Now what no one in our lame pro-government media or Congress or Administration has said is the a US debt default does NOT necessarily mean that the US walks away from its debt. Very likely, China and Japan, our two biggest foreign debt holders, will insist on debt restructuring so that the US pays some fraction of debt owed, like 80%.
But foreign debt holders are a relatively small percentage of US debt holders. The Federal Reserve is the largest single borrower, thanks in part to Yellen who has formally Federal Reserve Chair,
Of course, financial entities like Vanguard, Blackrock and Fidelity are the largest holders of US debt. Since pensions invest heavily with these enetitites, the Federal government would restructure the debt rather than outright default.
US CDS 1Y continues to remain high as Biden/Yellen/Schumer play chicken with the lives of the American middle class while the political donor class is clamoring for endless spending and wealth transfers.
Remember, Biden, Yellen and Schumer all Statists and believe that their job is growing Federal government to wear it is all powerful and their donors get billions in subsidies and wealth transfers. You don’t think green energy subsidies make any common sense, do you? Wind turbines (aka, whale and eagle killing machines) are ineffective. We need nuclear power but Progressives fear nuclear power as much as they have Donald Trump.
Bankrate’s 30-year mortgage rate is down slighty to 6.89%, but that masks the reality that mortgage rates were only 2.88% when Biden was sworn in as President. That is a staggering increase of 140 in the 30-year mortgage rate.
In fairness to Unaffordable Joe, Congress went on a crazy spending spree with Covid, much of which had nothing to do with Covid. Green energy spending for the donor class is helping drive core inflation up 291% since Biden was installed as President.
And yes, The Fed is playing catch up for former Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s “Too low for too long (TLTL) monetary policy. So, now she is creating mayhem as US Treasury Secretary. And she was a terrible Fed Chair, now a terrible Treasury Secretary.
And yes, The Fed looks like they are pausing rate hikes.
Another dismal economic report under “Middle class” Joe Biden.
April’s inflation report is out and … it sucks. Core inflation (CPI less food and energy) remains elevated at 5.5% YoY, much higher than The Fed’s target rate of 2%. Even worse, US REAL average weekly wage growth is negative again at -1.1% YoY, negative growth for the 25th straight month.
Turns out that core inflation is higher than overall inflation. 4.9% YoY compared to core of 5.5% YoY.
Despite the hot core inflation report, Fed Funds Futures are pointing to declining rates over time.
While the US middle class is getting screwed, The Biden family are raking in millions …. from China.
Resident Biden has been an unmitigated disaster for the US middle class, but fantastic for BIG corporate America and the donor class.
Mortgage applications increased 6.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 5, 2023.
The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 6.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 7 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 10 percent from the previous week and was 44 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 5 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 5.3 percent compared with the previous week and was 32 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
Here is the data.
Middle class Joe as he likes to call himself is actually BIG CORPORATE Joe. A friend of big donor and BIG pharmam, BIG banks, BIG tech, BIG defense contractors, BIG media. No wonder Hunter Biden refers to Joe as “The BIG guy!”
Ok, it is well-known that Biden was the stupidest man in the US Senate. And with Washington’s Patty Murray in the Senate, that is quite an accomplishment.
But Biden is President and is still stupid and spiraling down the dementia rabbit hole. He is blaming Republicans for their budget proposal to end the debt ceiling crisis despite saying previously that he would negotitate. Apparently, Biden’s puppet masters are telling him to risk default by playing the blame game.
So, US credit default swap (CDS 1Y, SR, EURO) price remains elevated which indicates that Biden, Yellen and Schumer may actually default on US debt.
As M2 Money growth crashes and burns, the US Treasury 2Y-3M yield curve inverts to lowest in history.
Biden loves to brag about the greatest economy in history! Sure Joe. Life during Biden.
Challenger jobs cuts in April were 176% year-over-year. Non farm productivity in Q1 fell -2.7% QoQ. And unit labor costs in Q1 almost doubled to 6.3% QoQ, almost doubled from the Q4 2022 figure of 3.2%.
At least The Fed is going to pause it manic rate hikes. Then begin dropping them again.
As Connor MacLeod said in the film Highlander, “There can only be one!” The US banking system under Joe Biden’s Reign of Error is like the film Highlander: apparently, there can only be one bank. And it is likely JP Morgan Chase.
Take the JP Morgan Chase (JPMC) acquisition of First Republic Bank:
In Acquiring First Republic Bank, JP Morgan Has:
Bypassed laws against acquiring bank while controlling 10%+ of US deposits
Shared $13 billion in losses with the FDIC
Received a $50 billion loan from the FDIC
Effectively bought back its own deposits
Expects to profit $5 billion+ over the next 5 years
This crisis has taught us that rules don’t matter in times of panic, particularly to regulators.
And now we have PacWest Bancorp. Lender says it’s been approached by potential investors. Bill Ackman warns US regional banking system at risk.
The turmoil at PacWest shows how investor angst still remains elevated after a string of failures and deposit outflows in the sector despite Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s assurance Wednesday that authorities were closer to containing the crisis. It’s reignited the debate over whether more US regional lenders will fall after this year’s collapse of SVB Financial Group’s Silicon Valley Bank, Silvergate Capital Corp., Signature Bank and most recently First Republic Bank.
Smaller banks are under pressure after a year of interest-rate hikes hammered the value of their bond holdings and drove unrealized losses to an estimated $1.84 trillion. Trouble in commercial real estate is adding to the pain, while depositors take their money out to seek better returns elsewhere. These stresses have put the spotlight on these lenders, which typically have fewer resources to defend themselves.
We are seeing a consolidation of the banking system .. again as smaller and regional banks fail and get gobbled up by the Too-Big-To-Fail (TBTF) banks like … JP Morgan Chase.
Biden’s Reign of Error is not over yet. His campaign slogan (which was also Bill Clinton’s campaign reelection slogan) is “Finish the job!” With Biden’s idiotic mortgage idea of punishing borrowers with good credit and giving subsidies to those with bad credit, Biden is trying to finish off the US economy and banking system.
Some are marvelling that M2 Money VELOCITY (GDP/M2) is rising as if this is a miracle. It isn’t. Under Biden, public debt has increased by $3.7 trillion. But as The Fed pulls back and M2 Money growth slows, M2 Money Velocity is rising. But still below historic levels.
Doctor, doctor (Yellen). We have a bad case of excessive and wasteful Federal spending and debt.
China doesn’t have to invade the US. Biden, Schumer and Jeffries are destroying the country on their own.
While Biden is bailing out banks and Ukraine (and taking bribes from China), I am struggling to buy a bottle of wine.
This is last data dump for mortgage demand (applications) before Biden’s idiotic woke mortgage policies go into effect (taxing those with good credit to subsidize those with lousy credit) take effect. I call this Bolshevik Biden’s Mortgage Market.
Mortgage applications decreased 1.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 28, 2023.
The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 1.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 0.4 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 1 percent from the previous week and was 51 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent compared with the previous week and was 32 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
Confounded Interest - Anthony B. Sanders 
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