Oil Drops In Price Along With Citi Economic Surprise Index, SOFR Rate Hits All-time High, Fed REPOs Soar!

Biden is hoping for one more term as President. And declining oil prices might help him get re-elected.

But we have a battle brewing! The United Nations and World Economic Forum (and their proxies John Kerry, Greta Thunberg and Green Joe Biden) against …. everyone else. Despite Biden’s lame attempts (through climate envoy John Kerry) at getting China to go to green energy and rid themselves of fossil fuels, China claims a new discovery of roughly 1.78 billion barrels of oil. Kristalina Georgieva, a Bulgarian economist who serves as the managing director of the International Monetary Fund, said Monday that the IMF wants to see countries implement punishing new carbon taxes to “fight climate change.” Kristalnacht won’t like China’s oil discovery either.

Then we have oil production surging (think of WEF’s Klaus Schwab’s scowling face) and crude oil prices sinking to 6 month lows.

Oil prices are dropping along with the Citi Economic Surprise Index.

In financial markets, we have the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) jumped to a record high.

And Treasuries purchased by The Federal Reserve (repos) skyrocketed this week.

On the gold side, we see a Golden Cross (not William Jennings Bryan’s Cross of Silver).

WEF’s Klaus Schwab won’t like China finding so much cheap energy.

Bloom Off The ESG Rose? WEF’s ESG Sustainability Push Is Waning (Issuance Of Sustainability Linked Loans Down 80% In US)

Huey Lewis and the News said it best about ESG goals: “The elites want a new drug.”

The World Economic Forum (WEF) is a leading pusher of the ESG drug, pushed by the elite class intending to control the world. Unfortunately, numerous American politicians and influencers have attended the Davos meetings and have openly praised the WEF and its leader Klaus Schwab.

ESG refers to the environmental, social and governance information about a firm. There is growing evidence that companies that take their environmental and social responsibilities seriously perform better financially. This has naturally made investors sit up and take notice.

ESG investing, or sustainable responsible investing (SRI), uses this information about a company to inform investment decisions that prioritize all stakeholders.

Here’s how the Forum’s partners are leading the switch to stakeholder capitalism.

There are 3 pillars to ESG and sustainable investment. This reminds me of the 10 pillars (or planks) of Marxism. So ESG is Marxism with a different name, but the end result is the same. Big government control.

But all is not well with WEF’s ESG drug distribution. In fact, ESG flows into socially consious funds were a big thing during Covid (2020) and the first year of Biden’s Reign of Error. But ESG flows slowed sharply in 2022 and seeing net outflows in 2023.

Issuance of sustainability linked loans is down 80% in the US.

US borrowers are retreating en masse from the world’s second-biggest ESG debt class.

The $1.5 trillion market for sustainability-linked loans, in which borrowing is tied to environmental, social or governance goals, has seen an overall slowdown in volumes this year as both interest rates and greenwashing fears rise. But nowhere has the decline been as precipitous as in the US, where the number of new sustainability-linked loans is down 80% from a year earlier.

But ESG is still relatively popular in Europe, Middle East and Africa (orange). But taste for ESG is waning around the globe. But the selection of Biden as President in the US marked a surge in ESG -tied loans in 2021 and 2022 (not to mention the insane levels of spending out of Biden and Congress, much tied to the sustainability, green energy fantasy.

Loans with terms tied to borrower’s ESG goals have fallen worldwide.

Several states (largely blue states like California, Minnesota, Illinois, and Colorado have pro-ESG laws) while several states have anti-ESG laws (largely red states like Montana, Idaho, North Dakota, Kansas, Utah, Indiana, Arkansas, Florida, and West Virginia).

And of course, global warning may not be as dire as John Kerry and Greta Thunberg say.

WEF’s Klaus Schwab about to get sniffed by his 80-year old puppet, Joe Biden. In fact, Biden is singing “I’m your puppet.”

Here is Hunter Biden welcoming the Green Energy fairy and all the trillions in misallocated spending it brings.

The Thrill Is Gone? US Industrial Production Plunges In October As Auto-Maker Strikes Hit (But Also Federal Stimulypto Has Worn Out)

The thrill has gone from all the BIG spending bills from Biden.

After its surprising bounce last month (on a seasonally-adjusted basis, because it crashed NSA), US Industrial Production was expected to decline 0.3% MoM in October. It was worse – down 0.6% MoM from a downwardly revised September print (from +0.3% to +0.1%). October’s decline is the worst since Dec 2022 and the YoY drop of 0.8% is the worst since the COVID lockdowns. AND Federal stimulypto is wearing off (M2 Money growth surge peaked in February 2021, but has slowed into negative growth starting in August 2022.

Notably, once again, the non-seasonally-adjusted industrial production tumbled more than then seasonally-adjusted data…

Source: Bloomberg

On the manufacturing specific sector, consensus was for a 0.4% drop MoM but it was considerably worse, dropping 0.7% MoM (and September’s print was revised down from +0.4% to +0.2% MoM). That is the biggest MoM drop since March and biggest YoY drop since the COVID lockdowns.

That is also the 8th straight month of YoY declines for Manufacturing production.

Source: Bloomberg

Output was weighed down by a 10% plunge in motor-vehicle production as the annualized rate of car assemblies dropped to 9.22 million units, the least since February 2022. Excluding parts production, autos and trucks production fell 16.5% MoM – the biggest drop since the COVID lockdowns…

Source: Bloomberg

Starting in September, the United Auto Workers union authorized targeted strikes against the Big Three Detroit automakers, disrupting production at the companies and at their suppliers. The UAW reached tentative agreements with management in late October, laying the groundwork for a rebound in factory output in November.

So theorteically, we should see bounce back next month. Unless demand – as WMT hinted at – has fallen off a cliff.

Bidenomics Strikes Again! Foreclosure Sale Notices For Commercial Property Loans Are Exploding, LA Apartment Sales Cratering (Newsom Creates New Potemkin Village For China Xi’s Visit)

Bidenomics strikes again!

After listening in horror to Joe Biden’s press conference after his summit with China’s Xi, I had to ask the following question: what does Joe Biden has in common with Georgia Tech? Answer? They are both rambling wrecks. Biden made a horrendous foreign policy blunder by calling Xi a “dictator” and almost blew it by nearly spillling the beans on our foreign policy negotiations with Israel. SecState Blinken had to intervene. We are represented by Winken (Harris), Blinken and Nod (Biden, who usually looks asleep or confused).

But back to the horrors of a slowing economy.

As the US economy slows down (like Biden himself), we are seeing further cracks in the real estate market. Foreclosure sale notices for commercial property loans are exploding.

And depending on the MSA, multifamily delinquencies are booming, like in Houston, Texas, New York City and Phoenix AZ.

Then we have this headline: “Not Just Office Towers – Commercial Real Estate Sales Crater Throughout Los Angeles.” It’s difficult to find big commercial real estate deals of any kind in Los Angeles. A new report from NAI Capital reveals how severe and universal the decline in activity is throughout the region this year amid collapsing values, higher interest rates, and a new tax on property sales above $5 million.

A related headline screams “LA Apartment Sales Plummet 50% as Investors Confront New Taxes, Higher Costs.” Every submarket saw an increase in vacant units and a decline in year-to-date sales volume in the second quarter. Construction, interest rates, eviction protections, also define 2023.

Yes, I know, California’s real estate woes are mostly the fault of their politicians like Governor Gavin (Gruesome) Newsom. The same guy who ordered San Francisco’s homeless population to be moved creating a new Potemkin Village. But rising interest rates are the fault of excessive spending by Congress and the Biden Administration.

Prepayments on Ginnie Mae MBS are extremely low.

But things are less than rosy in Communist China. China’s housing woes worsen as prices fall most in eight years.

But my favorite headline is from the Babylon Bee (a satire site): “After Five Minutes With Biden, Xi Gives Order To Invade Taiwan.”

Biden’s Mortgage Market! Mortgage Purchase Demand Falls 0.3% Since Last Week And -12% Since Last Year, Stocks, Bitcoin Booming, Gold Enters Contango (Mortgage Rates UP 172% Under Biden)

Biden says he wants 4 more years to finish the job. Like killing off the mortgage market completely, Joe?

Mortgage applications increased 2.8 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 10, 2023.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 2.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 0.4 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 3 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 0.3 percent compared with the previous week and was 12 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

The Refinance Index increased 2 percent from the previous week and was 7 percent higher than the same week one year ago

Of course, mortgage rates have been declining slightly over the past few weeks, but remain up 172% under Biden.

At least the stock market is booming after the inflation report signalled that The Fed is likely done with rate hikes.

On the gold front, we are seeing evidence of contango.

Bitcoin? Down a wee bit after a staggering rise in price over the past year.

Here is China’s Xi meeting with Biden’s likely replacement, “Greasy Gavin” Newsom and Newsom’s likely Treasury Secretary, Janet “Too Low For Too Long” Yellen. Newsom, Yellen and Xi all want havoc in America.

We WILL Get Fooled Again! Purchasing Power Of US Dollar DOWN -15% Under China Joe Biden (Top 1% Doing Great Under Bidenomics, Not The Middle Class)

Republicans elected Mike Johnson from Louisiana as House Speaker, then were surprised when Johnson agreed with big spending Senators McConnell and Schumer on Biden’s mega spendathon. Also, several Republicans voted with Democrats NOT to impeach Cuba Pete (Mayorkas) for allowing 8 million illegals to cross the southern border. Bottom line: the Biden Administration and Congress are closely held subsidiaries of the elite 1% and US large corporations. The middle class be damned! But we will get fooled again in every election.

Since Biden’s inaugration in January 2021, the purchasing power of the US dollar is down a staggering -15%.

Yes, under control of large corporations and the 1%, the economy is an economic wasteland. But the 1% are doing great under Bidenomics! With The Fed’s help of course.

Here is a chart of core inflation relative to M2 Money printing. Easy way to cool inflation … stop printing money!

Here is China’s Xi and America’s “China Joe” Biden.

Seriously, Biden has always been known as being stupid and corrupt. Now he has dementia. A PERFECT President for the 1% in their war against the middle class. Biden is the penultimate “useful idiot” with an emphasis on idiot.

Bidenomics Breakfast! Orange Juice Prices UP 47% Under Biden (Even Though Food CPI Has Slowed To 3.69% YoY)

Even eating breakfast under Bidenomics is more expensive. Particularly if you like orange juice like I do. To save money, I am probably going to have to switch to nasty-tasting Tang.

Food CPI is up 3.69% year-over-year. The rate of growth in food prices is slowing. But do I trust BLS data on CPI? Of course not.

Orange juice prices are up 47% under Biden.

And we see that REAL GDP is growing at a slower rate than nominal GDP.

Tang is the taste I hate and I can get Vitamin C from a multi vitamin. But I just don’t like having government policies (or follycies) dictate my food consumption. Or auto choice (I refused to buy an electric car or pickup truck).

Speaking of Bidenomics, here is an interesting Zero Hedge story on “The Biden-Du Pont Nexus: From A Prestigious Golf Club To A Controversial Child Rape Plea Deal.” What is it with Delaware elites having sex with their children?? And why is NY AG Letitia James prosecuting Donald Trump when there has been no crime while she let’s Epstein’s clients who flew to have sex with minors (used to be illegal) off the hook?

But I feel good! After my breakfast of … Scotch Broth. OJ is just too expensive.

Simply Unaffordable! Income Needed To Buy A Home Is $111k While Median Household Income Is Only $78k, Credit Card Delinquencies Highest Since 1991, REITs Down > -10% YTD (Bitcoin, Gold UP YTD!)

Bidenomics is a windfall for the donor class (high rate of return on campaign contributions) while the middle class gets beaten to a pulp. Waiting for Biden to lean over and creepily whisper “It’s working!” Even though it is clearly not working, at least for the middle class.

Evidence that Bidenomics is not working and destructive? Try the surging income needed to buy a house under Biden. Home prices are rising faster than median household income. As in $111,000 income needed to buy a house, while median household income is only $78,000. So, housing is simply unaffordable under Bidenomics. The Biden era is outlined in pink.

Mortgage purchase applications have collapsed to 1994 levels.

Meanwhile, stressed households are seeing credit card delinquencies at the highest level since 1991.

And thanks to Uncle Spam (given how Uncle Sam is destroying the middle class it is now Uncle Spam), 2023 interest payments are the same as the total debt from 1980! Spam, which the Federal government has devolved into, is very high in fat, calories and sodium and low in important nutrients, such as protein, vitamins and minerals.

2022 was a bad year for investments under Bidenomics. 2023 year to date is showing huge gains for Bitcoin, the NASDAQ and gold. Bringing up the rear are long duration Treasuries and REITs (real estate investment trusts), both earning negative returns thus far of less than -10%.

When will we see rats fleeing the sinking SS Bidenomics as it sinks? JPMorgan Chase stock slips after bank says CEO Jamie Dimon is selling 1 million shares.

Biden, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Fed Chair Jay Powell have a bad case of screwing you (Doctor, Doctor).

Can The Fed Fix Biden/Congress Spending Addiction? Volcker, Greenspan, Yellen, Powell All Pushed Rates Lower … Until Biden (Fed Still Ignoring Taylor Rule) Mortgage Rates Continue To Climb

I had a wonderful time speaking at the Passive Investors Conference last night. One question I was asked was “Why doesn’t Powell (the current Fed Chair) pull “a Volcker” to cool inflation. She was referring to former Fed Chair Paul Volcker’s sudden raising of The Fed’s target rate which resulted in a cooling of inflation, but also an increase in the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to 16.63% in 1981.

Notice the trend in the Fed’s target rate and 30-year mortgage rate after Volcker’s rate shock. The trend in both has been downward as inflation was cooled.

But, each Fed Chair ranged from hyperactive to hypoactive (meaning doing little). Volcker and Greenspan saw wild swings in The Fed’s target rate. Bernanke pretty much only lowered rates AND expanded the Quantitative Easing (QE) or asset purchases by The Fed. And nothing has been the same since.

Yellen, now Treasury Secretary, continued Bernanke’s practice of zero interest rate policies (ZIRP) and QE (asset purchases) … until Donald Trump was elected President. In fact, Yellen raise rates only once prior to Trump’s election as President. Then raises rates 8 consecutive times. This is why I call Yellen “TLTL Janet”. Too low for too long Janet.

The she was replaced with DC insider Jerome Powell. Trump’s economy was strong (one explanation for Yellen trying to cool the economy with 8 consecutive rate hikes). But the Covid struck and Powell/Fed Open Market Committee overreacted, lowered the target rate back to 25 basis points and massively expanded the balance sheet. Powell also oversaw a rapid increase in the target rate, very Volckerish! But Powell stopped short of the rate suggested by The Taylor Rule of around 6.5% to 8.17%. The current target rate is 5.50%. So, Powell stopped far short of rates need to cool inflation.

But with Bidenomis came Bidenflation and a reversal of misfortunes for The Fed. They started rapidly raising rates … again.

Mortgage rates continue to climb as The Fed stubbornly won’t reduce its balance sheet.

Biden/Congress have a broken fiscal model where spending is out of control. And The Fed can’t buy all the debt Biden/Yellen want to issue.

US deficits are the third highest on record.

We might as well have Taylor Swift as Fed Chair. And Travis Kelce as Treasury Secretary replacing TLTL Janet.

Biden’s Incredible Shrinking Economy! Bank Credit Growth Negative For 10th Straight Week As Interest Rate On Short-term Loans Almost 10%!! (Ouch!)

Bidenomics is failing catestropically. Example? As interest rates rise to fight Biden’s Federal spending splurges, bank credit growth slowed to -0.41% YoY for the 10th straight week of negative credit growth.

While interest paid on short-term loans almost 10%!!

“Jimmy, watch me tank the economy even worse than you did!”