Silverado! No, not the Chevy full-size pickup truck, but the precious metal Silver is up over 1% this morning!
The US Treasury 10Y-2Y yield curve remains inverted at -102.7 basis points for the 244th straight day as M2 Money YoY (aka, liquidity) evaporates.
Silver is up over 1% this morning.
Bitcoin Cash is up12.39% this morning.
Speaking of Silverado, a fully loaded new 2023 Chevy Silverado 1500 ZR2 costs around $100,000. Thanks Biden and Powell (BiPow?). Try financing that purchase with auto loan rates soaring!
I could have used 3 shades of Joe, but 50 shades of Joe sounds better!
But the fact remains that Americans are far more miserable under Biden than they were under Trump before the Chinese Wuhan Covid virus was unleashed. 9.03 today (Core CPI YoY + U-3 Unemployment) than it was in February 2020 under Trump (5.86). While not twice as bad, inflation is continues to cause serious problems for America’s middle class and low-wage workers.
Speaking of the middle class and low wage workers, let’s look at the Renter’s Misery index (CPI Owner’s equivalent rent YoY + Unemployment rate). It was 6.78% in February 2020 under Trump and before Covid struck and is now 11.75% under Inflation Joe.
Speaking of misery, how 25 straight months of negative REAL wage growth? Real weekly wage growth went negative in April 2021, just a few months after Biden was installed as President.
Now, there was winners under Biden. Green energy donors, the big banks, big pharma, big tech, but media … essentially any big donors from big entities got massive payoffs. The middle class and low-wage workers? As Jerry Reid once sang, “They got the coal mine and we got the shaft.”
Bloomberg Intelligence’s Michael Halen penned a new note titled “2H Restaurant Sales: Inflation Killing Appetites.” It outlines, “Consumer spending finally buckles under more than two years of inflation and price hikes,” and the likely result is a trade-down of casual-dining chains like Brinker and Cheesecake Factory for quick-service chains like McDonald’s and Wendy’s.
The trade-down, which could start as early as this summer, is expected to dent consumer spending in restaurants such as Cheesecake Factory, Texas Roadhouse, and at brands operated by Brinker and Darden, Halen said.
Casual-dining industry same-store sales rose just 0.9% in May, according to Black Box Intelligence, as traffic dropped 5.4%. We expect cash-strapped low- and middle-income diners to cut restaurant visits and checks through year-end due to more than two years of real income declines and ballooning credit-card balances.
Halen provides more details about quick-service restaurants to fare better than causal-dining ones as “consumer spending finally buckles.”
Quick-service restaurants’ same-store sales could moderate with consumer spending in 2H but should fare better than their full-service competitors. Results rose 2.9% in May, according to Black Box data, as a 5% average-check increase was partly offset by a 2% guest-count decline. Check- driven comp-store sales gains are unsustainable, and we think inflation and menu price hikes will motivate low- and middle-income diners to reduce restaurant visits and manage their spending in 2H. On Domino’s 1Q earnings call, management said lower-income consumers shifted delivery occasions to cooking at home. Still, a trade-down from full-service dining due to cheaper price points may cushion the blow.
McDonald’s, Burger King, Wendy’s, and Jack in the Box are among the quick-service chains in Black Box’s index.
The latest inflation data shows consumers have endured the 26th straight month of negative real wage growth. What this means is that inflation is outpacing wage gains. And bad news for household finances, hence why many have resorted to record credit card usage.
And the personal savings rate has collapsed to just 4.4%, its lowest level since Sept. 2008 (the dark days of Lehman). And why is this? To afford shelter, gas, and food, consumers are drawing from emergency funds due to the worst inflation storm in a generation.
As revolving consumer credit has exploded higher and the last two months have seen a near-record increase…
… even as the interest rate on credit cards has jumped to the highest on record.
With record credit card debt load and highest interest payments in years, plus depleted savings, oh yeah, and we forgot, the restart of student loan payments later this year, this all may signal a consumer spending slowdown at causal diners while many trade down for McDonald’s value menu. Even then, we’ve reported consumers have shown that menu items at the fast-food chain have become too expensive.
On the commodity side, Spot Silver is up 1.46%. Iron Ore is up 1.60%, but I don’t think my neighbors would appreciate me taking delivery on 10 tons of iron ore on my driveway! Heating oil is up 2.90%.
On the crypto side, bitcoin is up 20.84 (0.08%) with Ethereum up slightly more.
Bitcoin and silver doing well as the US Dollar loses ground since September 2022.
Between work at home, Bidenflation and The Feral Reserve, commercial real estate and regional banks are suffering … and it could get a lot worse. And Joe Biden (aka, Negan) in general. Living in Negan Country!
The work-from-home trend has been taking its toll on office landlords and is now making its way through to banks’ commercial loan portfolios, leading some analysts to predict that more trauma could be on the way for regional banks this year.
And in the current climate of bank failures, short sellers, and nervous depositors, banks with large exposures to commercial real estate (CRE) loans are racing to clean up and sell down their loan portfolios in hopes that they will not fall victim to another round of bank runs.
“There is an estimated $1.5 trillion of commercial property debt that will be due for repayment in about 18 months,” Peter Earle, an economist at the American Institute for Economic Research, told The Epoch Times. “It’s not improbable that even if interest rates have fallen by that time, some of that real estate debt will nevertheless be impaired and have an adverse impact on regional banks.”
In step with a recent trend in the CRE market, tech giant Google announced in May that it was attempting to sublease 1.4 million square feet of vacant office space in its Silicon Valley home base in order to “match the needs of our hybrid workforce.” Despite more employees returning to their offices this year, average office occupancy rates across the United States are still below 50 percent.
According to a report by Bank of America, 68 percent of CRE loans are held by regional banks. Approximately $450 billion in CRE loans will mature in 2023. JPMorgan Chase estimated that CRE loans comprise, on average 28.7 percent of the assets of small and regional banks, and projected that 21 percent of CRE loans will ultimately default, costing banks about $38 billion in losses.
Double Hit (of Biden’s Policies) Commercial mortgages are getting hit on two fronts: first, by the lack of demand for office space, leading to credit concerns regarding landlords, and second, by interest rate hikes that make it significantly more expensive for borrowers to refinance.
According to a June 12 report by Trepp, a CRE analytics firm, CRE loans that were originated a decade ago, when average mortgage rates were 4.58 percent, are now coming due, and in today’s market, fixed-rate CRE loan rates are averaging around 6.5 percent.
Banks that make CRE loans consider factors like debt service coverage ratios (DSCRs), which measure a property’s income relative to cash payments due on loans. Simulating mortgage interest rates from 5.5 percent to 7.5 percent, Trepp projected that between 28 percent and 44 percent, respectively, of currently outstanding CRE loans would fail to meet the 1.25 DSCR ratio today, and thus be ineligible for refinancing.
These calculations were done assuming current cash flows from properties stay the same and that loans are interest-only, but with vacancies rising, many landlords may have substantially less cash flow available. In addition, whereas interest-only CRE loans were 88 percent of the market in 2021, lenders are now switching to amortizing mortgages to reduce risk, which significantly increases debt service payments.
Refinancing Issues Fitch, a rating agency, projected that approximately one-third of commercial mortgages coming due between April and December of this year will be unable to refinance, given current interest rates and rental income.
“It’s a very different world now from the one in which the majority of these loans were made,” Earle said. “In a zero-interest-rate environment, before the COVID lockdowns saw many businesses shift to a remote work basis, many of these loan portfolios full of office properties looked great. Now, a substantial portion of them look quite vulnerable.”
The Trepp report highlighted several regional markets, such as San Francisco, where office sublease offers jumped 140 percent since 2020, and Los Angeles, where office vacancies hit a historic high of 22 percent. Available office space in Washington D.C. increased to 21.7 percent in the first quarter of 2023.
New York has been hit hard, as well. Office occupancy rates in New York City plummeted from 90 percent to 10 percent in 2020 during the COVID pandemic, but only recovered to 48 percent this year. Revenue from office leases fell by 18.5 percent between December 2019 and December 2022.
Vacancy Rates at 30-Year High Overall, according to a report by analysts at New York University and Columbia Business School, office vacancy rates are at a 30-year high in many American cities.
The report found that “remote work led to large drops in lease revenues, occupancy, lease renewal rates, and market rents in the commercial office sector.”
The authors predict that, even if office occupancy returns to pre-pandemic levels, “we revalue New York City office buildings, taking into account both the cash flow and discount rate implications of these shocks, and find a 44% decline in long run value. For the U.S., we find a $506.3 billion value destruction.”
As predicted, delinquencies in commercial mortgage loans are now creeping up. Missed payments in commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) increased half a percent in May over the prior month to 3.62 percent, Trepp reports. The worst component of the CMBS market, which includes multi-unit rental buildings, medical facilities, malls, warehouses, and hotels, was offices, where delinquencies increased 125 basis points to more than 4 percent.
To put this in perspective, however, CMBS delinquencies exceeded 10 percent in 2012 and 2020. And analysts say that lending criteria for CRE have been more conservative than they were before the mortgage crisis of 2008, leaving more cushion on ratios relative to a decade ago.
All the same, the credit crunch at regional banks has created a vicious circle, where banks race to pare down their CRE portfolios, and the dearth of financing leaves more landlords facing default as outstanding loans mature. To make matters worse, commercial property values, which provide collateral for the loans, appear to be taking a hit as well.
In an effort to rapidly clean up their CRE loan portfolios and avoid the fate of failed banks like Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and First Republic Bank, banks are now attempting to sell off the loans, often taking a loss in the process.
In May, PacWest, a regional bank, sold $2.6 billion of construction loans at a loss. Citizens Bank reportedly has put $1.8 billion of its CRE loans up for sale during the first quarter of this year. Customers Bancorp reduced its CRE lending by $25 million and put $16 million of its existing portfolio up for sale.
Wells Fargo, one of the top four largest U.S. banks, is also downsizing its CRE portfolio, and in announcing the move CEO Charlie Scharf stated, “we will see losses, no question about it.”
“Between the Fed’s 500+ basis point hikes over the past 16 months and the failure of Silicon Valley Bank, and others, earlier this year, a credit tightening is already underway,” Earle said. “That has put a lot of pressure on regional lenders.”
A March academic study titled “Monetary Tightening and U.S. Bank Fragility in 2023” stated that the market value of assets held by U.S. banks is $2.2 trillion lower than what is reported in terms of their book value. This represents an average 10 percent decline in the market value of assets across the U.S. banking industry, and much of this decline came from commercial real estate loans.
Consequently, the authors wrote, “even if only half of uninsured depositors decide to withdraw, almost 190 banks with assets of $300 billion are at a potential risk of impairment, meaning that the mark-to-market value of their remaining assets after these withdrawals will be insufficient to repay all insured deposits.”
Biden’s “reign of error” is horrific. The inflation caused by Biden’s policies, The Federal Reserve and insane Federal spending has caused mortgage rates to soar 144% since Biden took office.
While The Fed is likely to pause today, but Fed Funds are pricing in a July rate hike.
Federal Reserve policymakers are about to take their first break from an interest-rate hiking campaign that started 15 months ago, even as they confront a resilient US economy and persistent inflation.
The Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday is expected to maintain its benchmark lending rate at the 5%-5.25% range, marking the first skip after 10 consecutive increases going back to March of last year. While officials’ efforts have helped to reduce price pressures in the US economy, inflation remains well above their goal.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bloomberg
Investors’ focus will be on the Fed’s quarterly dot plot in its Summary of Economic Projections, which is expected to show the policy benchmark rate at 5.1% at the end of 2023.
By contrast, markets are pricing in the possibility of a quarter-point hike in July followed by a similar-sized cut by December, and some Fed policymakers have emphasized that a pause in the hiking cycle shouldn’t be seen as the final increase.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who’ll hold a press conference after the meeting, has suggested he favors a break from hiking to assess the impact both of past moves and of recent banking failures on credit conditions and the economy. His commentary will be scrutinized for hints of the committee.
Remember, there is still over $8 TRILLION in Fed assets held sloshing around the economy. The Fed never really removed the excess liquidity and it continues to stoke asset bubbles.
Bear in mind that The Fed is pausing at 5.25% Fed Target Rate, while the Taylor Rule suggests rate hikes to 10.12%. So, Foul Powell is pausing at just over the half way mark.
Of course, Biden’s and Congress’ massive spending spree is causing inflation, and The Fed has no control over Biden/Congress irresponsible spending.
Some structural factors, such as remote work and hybrid work, have doomed the office space segment. This has left empty office buildings scattered across major US cities as the number of landlords falling behind on repayments due to the difficulty of refinancing and high vacancies has hit a five-year high.
According to real estate data firm Trepp, more than 4% of office loans packed into commercial mortgage-backed securities were delinquent in the last 30 days as of May, the highest level since 2018.
Dan McNamara, the founder of Polpo Capital Management, told Bloomberg about impending CRE turmoil:
“This is just the tip of the iceberg for office delinquencies as $35 billion in CMBS office loans are scheduled to mature this year and the refinancing market is effectively shut to this asset class.”
The rise in delinquencies comes as security card swipe data from Kastle shows many workers have yet to return to their desks in major US cities, resulting in high office space vacancies nationwide.
As Goldman pointed out to clients days ago, one major issue is a steep maturity wall of floating and fixed-rate CMBS loans due this year and next. The inability to refinance in these challenging market conditions will likely unleash a tidal wave of defaults in the second half of this year.
Goldman Sachs chief credit strategist Lotfi Karoui told clients last month, “the most accurate portrayal of current market conditions” is data via the Green Street Commercial Property Price Index, which suggests trouble ahead.
Just how much danger? Karoui believes “Green Street indicates a 25% year-over-year drop in office property values and a 21% drop in apartment property values.”
So the combination of high vacancies, sliding prices, and tightening lending standards is a perfect storm that could ignite an eruption of delinquencies in office loans in the coming quarters.
Treasury Secretary Janet “Too Low For Too Long” Yellen, and former Federal Reserve Chair, is partly responsible for a phenomenon plaguing America: the death of starter homes.
As Mish has discussed, with main markets no longer an option for first-time buyers, Point2 looked at the country’s 100 largest secondary cities for the median price of a starter home and renter households’ median income. Defined as large non-core cities within a metro, these cities used to be fruitful house-hunting grounds for first-time buyers exploring less-expensive options away from main cities. But as it turns out, unaffordability can put a dent in homeownership plans regardless of city type or size.
In 41 of the 100 largest secondary cities in the U.S., renters earn half or less than half of the income they would need to buy a median-priced starter home.
There are no non-core cities in which renters could comfortably make a move toward homeownership: In 10 cities, the necessary income is about triple what they earn.
Would-be buyers in Burbank and Glendale, CA have it worst: They lack 67% of the income they would need in order to make the move from renter to homeowner.
Renters in 9 California cities would need to earn about $100,000 more in order to afford a starter home. Based on the latest renter income figures, starter home prices, and mortgage rates, non-core cities in the LA and San Diego metros are the toughest for first-time homebuyers.
In 15 of the 100 largest secondary cities, renters would need less than 4 months’ worth of extra income to afford the transition to owning a starter home.
Homeownership is within reach in Independence, MO, and Broken Arrow, OK. Those who dream of owning here would need less than one month’s worth of extra income to afford a starter home.
California Tops the List of Worst Places to Look
California has the dubious distinction of having the top least affordable starter home cities.
A starter home, according to the Census Department is priced in the bottom third of homes in the area.
Pomona, CA, is in fourteenth place. The average renter in Pomona makes $49,000 a year and needs to get to $121,000 a year. That’s nearly 2.5 times current salary.
In Burbank, CA, the average renter makes $63,000 year an needs to get to $193,000. That’s over 3 times current salary.
Within Grasp
In no market can the average renter make the plunge.
But in Independence, Missouri, or Broken Arrow, Oklahoma, the average renter is respectively just 2% and 5% short of the amount needed for a starter home
Not Shocking
None of this is shocking. It matches one one should expect looking at Case-Shiller home prices and mortgage rates.
The Fed wanted to produce inflation and it did. But for years the Fed did not even see the inflation because the manifestation of inflation was in asset prices, not the price of consumer goods.
Case-Shiller Top City Home Prices Decline From Year Ago for the First Time Since May 2012
Housing starts, like mortgage purchase demand, remains depressed compared to the housing bubble of the 2000s.
Now, will The anticipated Fed pause in rate hiking help? Not likely. The Fed still has over $8 trillion in monetary stimulus chasing assets. Too much Stimulypto.
Resident Biden and Congress unleashed inflation of the unsuspecting American middle class. Now real estate is starting to feel the pain of Fed monetary tightening.
For March, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20 metro home price index actually fell -1.15% YoY as The Fed continues to tighten its monetary noose on the US economy.
The biggest losers in terms of home prices? The west! Los Angeles, Denver, Phoenix, Portland, Las Vegas, San Diego, San Francisco and Pramila Jayapal-ville, Seattle.
On the commercial real estate side, quarterly returns were all negative in Q1 2023. Especially office space.
California Governor Gavin Newsom (Nancy Pelosi’s newphew). “Watch me make housing values collapse!” Abracadabra!
Confounded Interest - Anthony B. Sanders 
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