Its the 4th of July, American Independence Day from England, but under Biden and The Federal Reserve, Americans are DEPENDENT on debt and Federal spending. In other words, Americans are addicted to gov.
First, Bankrate’s 30-year mortgage rate index is up 150% under Biden. You can see the rapid rise in mortgage rates started with Biden (orange box). Meanwhile, the US Treasury yield curve (10Y-2Y) is the most inverted (negative slope) since 1981. Way to go, Joe!!
On the metals side, gold and silver are up slightly. (Go silver go!!)
On the crypto side, Polkadot is up 1.26% while Bitcoin is down -0.18%.
Memo To Fed: keep on printing! Why? US debt is currently $32.33 TRILLION with $192 TRILLION in unfunded Federal liabilties. That is 5 times the current level of debt!!
Bidenomics is based on massive Federal spending and massive Fed monetary stimulus. But like all stimulus, it wears off. Such is the case with bank lending as The Fed raises interest rates.
US bank credit year-over-year (YoY) has stalled to a lowly 0.7% rate as M2 Money growth YoY increases slightly to -4%.
Its figures. With the Socialist Federal Reserve manipulating interest rates and Biden/Congress spending like drunken sailors trying to manipuate economic growth, it makes sense that Biden wants to explore Bill Gate’s idiotic idea of blotting out the sun to prevent global warming.
Of course, Biden can hide at any of his 4 mansions and wear his Ray-ban Aviators to avoid the horror of his policies.
The film “The Core” was a silly film, but core inflation in the US is a serious problem for the middle class and low-wage workers. It remains elevated despite Treasury Secretary Janet “The Marxist Gnome” Yellen saying it was “transitory.” Looks pretty permanent to me!
The Federal Reserve’s preferred measures of US inflation cooled (slightly) in May and consumer spending stagnated, suggesting the economy’s main engine is starting to lose some momentum.
The personal consumption expenditures price index rose 0.1% in May, Commerce Department figures showed Friday. From a year ago, the measure eased to the slowest pace in more than two years.
Consumer spending, adjusted for prices, was little changed after a downwardly revised 0.2% gain in April. From February through May, household spending has essentially stalled after an early-year surge. Spending on merchandise dropped, while outlays for services increased.
Excluding food and energy, the so-called core PCE price index increased 4.6% from May 2022. That’s in line with annual readings back to late 2022 and shows minimal relief from elevated price pressures. Economists consider this to be a better gauge of underlying inflation.
Indicator
Actual
Estimate
PCE price index (MoM)
+0.1%
+0.1%
Core PCE price index (MoM)
+0.3%
+0.3%
PCE price index (YoY)
+3.8%
+3.8%
Core PCE price index (YoY)
+4.6%
+4.7%
Real consumer spending (MoM)
0.0%
+0.1%
Under the hood of the government report, a key metric flagged by Fed Chair Jerome Powell showed a welcome slowdown. Services inflation excluding housing and energy services increased 0.2% in May from a month earlier, the smallest advance since July of last year, according to Bloomberg calculations. The figure was up 4.5% from a year ago.
The Taylor Rule now suggests a target rate of 10%. We are just halfway to target!
Meanwhile, Yellen Plans July China Trip, While US Preps Investment Curbs. Trying to convince China that the US won’t default on its $32 TRILLION and growing debt?
Bidenomics is a great marketing ploy where you have out of control Federal spending and magically decide to reopen the economy and school after Covid and focus only on jobs added after Biden was selected President and ignore the jobs added during Trump.
Real gross domestic income (GDI) is a measure of the incomes earned and the costs incurred in the production of gross domestic product. It’s another way of measuring U.S. economic activity. BEA also publishes the average of real GDP and real GDI.
REAL GDI dropped to -0.8% QoQ for Q1 2023. Kind of looks like Bidenomics is running out of gas.
On Biden’s claims that he created twice as many jobs as any other President, the US economy add 12.53 million jobs after April 2020 (Trump) while Bidenomics created took 2 1/2 years to add 12.56 million jobs.
The US Treasury yield curve (10Y-2Y) is now inverted at -103 basis points.
As Fed stimulus wears out, so is the Treasury 10Y-2Y yield curve.
Eggs, bacon and toast. All more expensive under Biden’s economy. And mortgage purchase demand is down -45.3% since Biden was elected and mortgage refinancing demand is down -91% under Biden and mortgage rates are up 128% under Biden’s economy.
Mortgage applications increased 3.0 percent from one week earlier (using seasonally adjusted data), according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending June 23, 2023. This week’s results include an adjustment for Juneteenth holiday.
The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 3.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 8 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 3 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 8 percent compared with the previous week and was 21 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
The Refinance Index increased 3 percent from the previous week and was 32 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
Now for the highly (self) touted Biden economy: Mortgage purchase demand is DOWN DOWN -45.3% under Biden, Refi demand is DOWN -91% under Bidenomics, and mortgage rates are UP 128% under Clueless Joe’s Reign of economic error.
Texas factory activity declined in June, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, fell three points to -4.2, a reading indicative of a slight contraction in output.
Labor market measures suggest weaker employment growth and declining work hours. Price pressures evaporated, while wage pressures remained elevated…
Yes, the Biden Administration may be the most incompetent administration in US history with Congress a close second. And did I mention CORRUPT??
Silverado! No, not the Chevy full-size pickup truck, but the precious metal Silver is up over 1% this morning!
The US Treasury 10Y-2Y yield curve remains inverted at -102.7 basis points for the 244th straight day as M2 Money YoY (aka, liquidity) evaporates.
Silver is up over 1% this morning.
Bitcoin Cash is up12.39% this morning.
Speaking of Silverado, a fully loaded new 2023 Chevy Silverado 1500 ZR2 costs around $100,000. Thanks Biden and Powell (BiPow?). Try financing that purchase with auto loan rates soaring!
Money supply growth fell again in April from Jerome Powell And The Fed, plummeting further into negative territory after turning negative in November 2022 for the first time in twenty-eight years. April’s drop continues a steep downward trend from the unprecedented highs experienced during much of the past two years.
Yes, The Fed is printing money like it is going out of style! The war on Covid was similar to other wars fought where the US printed boatloads of money to pay for WWI. WWII, Korea and Vietnam wars. And the war against the middle class (known as The Best Depression). Apparently, The Fed is still waging war against the middle class.
US M2 Money VELOCITY (GDP/M2) is near an all-time low after The Fed went berserk with money printing to combat the Covid economic and school shutdowns.
Then with The Fed’s massive monetary expansion and sudden contraction, we have REAL average weekly earnings growth YoY in negative territory for 25 straight months.
The Walking Dead’s Negan, the poster child for The Federal Reserve.
Well, with Jerome Powell And The Fed tightening monetary policy (about half way there!), we have seen competitors to the US Dollar Bitcoin and Gold have soared since September 26, 2022. Bitcoin is up 61%, Gold is up 18% and the US Dollar is down -10%.
Mortgage rates hover around 7% as the US Treasury 10-2Y curve inverts to over -100 basis points with M2 Money growth crashed and burned.
I could have used 3 shades of Joe, but 50 shades of Joe sounds better!
But the fact remains that Americans are far more miserable under Biden than they were under Trump before the Chinese Wuhan Covid virus was unleashed. 9.03 today (Core CPI YoY + U-3 Unemployment) than it was in February 2020 under Trump (5.86). While not twice as bad, inflation is continues to cause serious problems for America’s middle class and low-wage workers.
Speaking of the middle class and low wage workers, let’s look at the Renter’s Misery index (CPI Owner’s equivalent rent YoY + Unemployment rate). It was 6.78% in February 2020 under Trump and before Covid struck and is now 11.75% under Inflation Joe.
Speaking of misery, how 25 straight months of negative REAL wage growth? Real weekly wage growth went negative in April 2021, just a few months after Biden was installed as President.
Now, there was winners under Biden. Green energy donors, the big banks, big pharma, big tech, but media … essentially any big donors from big entities got massive payoffs. The middle class and low-wage workers? As Jerry Reid once sang, “They got the coal mine and we got the shaft.”
Confounded Interest - Anthony B. Sanders 
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