Official estimates from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) show that, since January 2021, legislation signed by President Biden has set in motion a record $3.37 trillion in new spending. And for all that spending, we get a pathetic 1.1% QoQ growth rate?
Inflation continues to be 4% QoQ despite M2 Money growth collapsing.
Gross private domestic investment crashed by -12.5% QoQ.
This is Biden’s idea of a strong economy? His lame campaign slogan is “Let’s finish the job!” Please don’t Joe!
Mortgage applications increased 3.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 21, 2023.
The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 3.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 5 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 2 percent from the previous week and was 51 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 5 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 6 percent compared with the previous week and was 28 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
James Carter (no, not Mr. Peanut, the smart one at America First Policy Institute’s Center for American Prosperity) had a nice op-ed on American Thinker entitled “The Biden Administration’s Budget Hypocrisy.”
The Biden administration’s claims of deficit reduction come in stark contrast to the president and his team, having added $4.8 trillion to the deficit through 2031.
You might call anyone uttering such claims a hypocrite. As Adlai Stevenson, the grandfather of the future Illinois governor and two-time presidential candidate of the same name, reportedly quipped: “A hypocrite is the kind of politician who would cut down a redwood tree, then mount the stump and make a speech for conservation.” Sounds about right.
Why does this matter? It matters because President Joe Biden fancies himself a champion of deficit reduction. As he bragged in a “60 Minutes” interview last month, “By the way, we’ve also … reduced the deficit by $350 billion my first year. This year, it’s going to be over $1.5 trillion, reduced the debt.”
But the president’s attempts to redefine his reckless spending as deficit reduction don’t end there. According to The Washington Post, “Just in the week before the 60 Minutes interview, the president mentioned having reduced the budget deficit by $350 billion six times, sometimes saying he wants to counter accusations that he’s running up the federal tab.” (emphasis added)
What the president fails to mention, however, is that this near-term deficit reduction has nothing to do with him or his administration. Instead, it’s the result of emergency COVID-19 spending that is now ending as planned.
Maya MacGuineas, president of the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, points out what the Biden administration is loath to admit:
“The White House has been trying to paint President Biden as the champion of prudent economic stewardship. Biden’s ‘record on fiscal responsibility is second to none,’ it asserts. As temporary covid measures end — and record-high deficits predictably decline — the administration is congratulating itself for that supposed achievement.
But the administration’s record is, sadly, the opposite of what it argues. Since entering office, the president has approved policies adding $4.8 trillion to the deficit over the next decade. This is an extraordinary sum, which makes it all the more astonishing that the administration would try to pull off this claim.”
According to the Office of Management and Budget, even if the 117th Congress had enacted the Biden administration’s fiscal year 2023 budget in its entirety, net interest costs would more than triple from $352 billion in 2021 to $1.1 trillion by 2032. Is a tripling of future net interest costs something typically associated with an administration committed to tackling the federal budget deficit? No.
President Biden’s rhetoric aside, his mid-session budget review forecasts endless $1 trillion-plus annual deficits totaling more than $14 trillion over the coming decade. Even adjusted for inflation, these deficits would be among the largest ever generated by the federal government. Is that “fiscally responsible?” No.
President Biden is not serious about reducing the deficit. He claims progress on the deficit but obscures the facts that every American should know.
Not only does President Biden fail to try to balance the budget, but he actively pursues policies that he must know will balloon federal spending and deficits.
No, but Biden and Congress are serious about bankrupting the US Treasury and moving to a Socialist model.
And what even James Carter doesn’t mention is the staggering levels of UNFUNDED LIABILITIES of $187 TRILLION. The question for Biden is …. how are deficits and the massive debt going to play out when we are on the hook for $187 TRILLION?
I am sure that Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and The Squad will suggest much higher taxes to cover it. And remember, Biden was the idiot that helped taxed Social Security for seniors. And he has also worked towards cutting Social Security and Medicare in the past.
The only out is 1) default on the US debt which would be catestophic and 2) renegging on the massive unfunded liability load. Remember, France is rioting over raising their retirement age by 2 years. Let’s see if Americans riot over inevitable cuts to Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid.
Cut mandatory spending without riots? Please.
The theme song of Biden’s insane, economy destroying, inflation creating budget should be “Keep on printing!”
Yes, this is Government Gone Wild! But no pics or videos of ancient Congress members like Warren or President Biden, please.
America’s mega bank, The Federal Reserve, is slowing M2 Money growth so rapidly that it looks like it is depthcharging the US economy.
Inflation in the US has been booming since 1) Biden attacked fossil fuels, 2) The Fed’s overresponse to Covid (+27.48% YoY on February 22, 2021 near the beginning of Biden’s Reign of Error). and 3) out of control Federal spending under Biden, Pelosi and Schumer.
Fed Funds Futures point to two more Fed rate hikes before The Fed drop rates like a depthcharge. This depthcharge will help create a rekindling of asset bubbles.
The Taylor Rule suggets a Fed Funds Target rate of 11.77 while the current target rate is only 5%. This is called “leading from behind.”
Here is The Fed monitoring the US economy in order to decide on firing more financial torpedos!
Of course, what is really troubling is that credit card useage is soaring as The Fed hikes interest rates to combat inflation … caused by Janet Yellen and The Fed keeping rates near zero for too long under Obama. Then we have Biden fighting fossil fuels and Congress spending like drunken sailors in port. All together? Consumers turn to credit cards to cope and their personal savings are dwindling.
How to protect yourself against out-of-control Fed money printing? Gold is up over $2,000.
US Producer Price Index (PPI) final demand YoY fell to 2.7% in March as The Fed withdraws its massive monetary stimulus.
Final demand MoM fell -0.5% in March. But the interest number is CORE PPI ex food and energy actually down but at 3.6%. So, CORE PPI final demand growth is higher than the aggregate.
Do I detect a trend in US continuing jobless claims?
At least Biden is in Belfast Ireland making his usual gaffes, telling outrageous lies and looking totally lost. As usual. He can do less damage to the US by being in Ireland.
US Core inflation keeps rising despite The Federal Reserve slowing M2 Money growth and raising The Fed Funds Targget rate as The Fed plays catch up from Janet Yellen’s “Too Low For Too Long” monetary policies under Obama. And she was … negligent.
US Core Inflation (Core CPI YoY) rose to 5.6% in March despite The Fed cranking up their target rate and rapidly withdrawing M2 Money.
How about REAL wages? Real average weekly earnings growth has now been negative for 24 straight months.
One reason that core inflation is still rising is that The Fed still has not raised rates sufficiently. According to the Taylor Rule, the Fed Funds Target rate should be 11.77% based on core inflation of 5.6%. Hey, The Fed isn’t even half way there. It is like the Doolittle Raiders in World War II dropping their bombs 100 miles off the Japanese coast well short of their target.
Fed Funds Futures are pricing in one more rate hike (and a small one at that) before they resume cutting rates again.
Between inflation under Biden and The Fed’s counterattack to get inflation to 2%, I call this the Biden Blitz.
Unlike what the elites in Washington DC think, small business are the cornerstone of the US economy. Unfortunately, small business optimism is getting crushed and just fell in March to a level lower than that found during the Covid economic shutdowns of 2020. HOW is it possible for small businesses to be even less optimistic than it was in April 2002, the nadir of the Covid economic shutdown?
Small business optimism soared in November 2016 after the election of Donald Trump and remained high (above 100) until Covid struck in March 2020. Small business optimism rose above 100 again with the massive money printing by The Fed (green line) and Federal spending spree. But as M2 Money growth slowed, small business optimism hasn’t been above 100 since August 2021. It has been all downhill since then as The Fed started to raise The Fed Funds Target Rate quite rapidly.
NFIB small business credit conditions are negative at -9.0 and sinking like The Titanic.
Biden is the face of big business (big banks, big pharma, big tech, big defense, big labor unions, big media, etc.). Biden just told Al Roker that he is indeed running for reelection, supported by …. big banks, big pharma, big tech, big defense, big labor unions, big media, etc.
Biden is no longer a President, but an old-time preacher screaming about MAGA Republicans as if they were demons. This is called Blitzkrieg Biden.
I read over the weekend that the Biden Administration was planning to unleash its army of social influencers on us to hype Biden’s economic accomplishments before the Presidential election. I am not one of his preferred social influencers. In fact, the US economy is slippin’ into darkness under Biden.
An example is ISM Manufacturing PMI which has declined to a level typically seen in prior recessions.
And then we have US bank credit growth which just crashed to the slowest growth rate since 2014.
Inflation started with Biden’s misguided war on US energy, then Biden/Congress helped inflation with an epic spending splurge. The Federal Reserve counterattacked with Fed rate hikes.
Over the past year, The Fed Funds Effective rate has risen and US bank credit has crashed to 2.73% year-over-year.
Do I detect a trend?
Since 2005, the crash in US bank credit is looking like 2008/2009 all over again.
Whether Biden is Cap’n Crunch or Jerome Powell or Janet Yellen, they are all crunching the US economy.
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