PBOC Earmarks $42 Billion for State Buying of Unsold Homes (BAD Central Planning Approach)

Don’t show Biden this story. Biden has never met a bad central planning scheme that he didn’t like and this one is TERRIBLE.

China’s struggling housing market is set to receive a boost from a new nationwide program funded by the People’s Bank of China to address oversupplied conditions. As a critical driver of the domestic economy, the nation’s housing market has been in a multi-year slump. This latest initiative by policymakers aims to stabilize the housing market and stimulate the broader economy. 

Bloomberg reports that PBoC Deputy Governor Tao Ling announced the new 300 billion yuan ($41.5 billion) nationwide program of cheap funding to allow state-owned companies to purchase unsold homes. 

Ling said the funding will be directed at 21 providers, including policy banks, state-owned commercial lenders, and joint-stock banks. A rate of 1.75% will be offered. The low-cost loans have a one-year term and can be rolled over four times. 

The new program powerfully signals that policymakers are pushing for property policy easing and measures to balance the supply-heavy housing market, which casts a dark cloud over the world’s second-largest economy. This announcement appears to be a step in the right direction in a national-level policy. 

Bloomberg first leaked the new rescue policies days earlier. We titled the note “Fiscal Bazooka: China Considers Buying Millions Of Homes To Save Property Market.”

Also, on Friday, policymakers eased mortgage rules and removed the mortgage rate floors for first and second homes. PBoC also lowered the minimum downpayment ratio for first-time homebuyers to 15%. The downpayment ratio for second-home purchases was lowered to 25%. 

Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng said that authorities in cities with excess home inventories should purchase unsold properties and convert them into affordable housing. He also urged local governments to repurpose inactive land parcels held by property developers to alleviate their financial troubles.

This was a very policy-heavy week to save the debt-stricken real estate market. Data showed that property investment and new home sales in April experienced larger contractions, while housing prices slid even further. 

China’s ailing property sector is a drag on GDP. 

Housing sales are tumbling.

And apartment and commercial property sales are sliding. 

In markets, the CSI 300 Real Estate Index closed up 9%, with gains from April 24 totaling about 36%. Yet the latest gains in the property index are still 68% below the early 2018 peak. 

The index’s weekly gain was the most since early December 2015. 

It isn’t in a Communist countries’ DNA to let markets solve the problem … like letting prices correct no matter how painful that adjustment is. Biden and his “economic” advisor Jared Bernstein (not an economist but a public policy hack) would likely follow China’s idiotic solutions to the problem.

I debated Bernstein once at a Washington DC conference. He was arrogant but eventually confessed that he didn’t know anything about housing or mortgages. Nice economic advisor, Joe!

BeelzBiden? Automobile ‘Bidenvilles’ Are The New Shantytowns Amid US Housing Affordability Crisis (House Prices UP 32.5% And Purchasing Power Of The Dollar DOWN -16.1%)

Joe Biden (aka, BeelzeBiden) is really a piece of … work. His policies are helping drive prices through the roof, he seeks to protect deepstate employees against removal by Trump, had a disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan and is getting the US engaged in possible hot wars in Ukraine (against Russia), open borders allowing US crime to spike, seems to be suppoporting Hamas over our long-time ally Israel, the list goes on. Biden’s big push for electric cars is a Socialist fantasty and simply unrealistick, drives up energy costs and is EXPENSIVE. It is like Biden is the demon Beelzebub from the TV show “Supernatural.” I once referred to Washington DC as “Mordor on The Potomac.”

Throw in the Federal Reserve operating outside their mandate (excessive interference in the financial crisis of 2008, the excessive interfernce after the Covid outbreak in 2020) and the two together are destroying the US.

Look at housing prices (up 32.5% under Biden) against the purcchasing power of the US dollar (down -16.1% under Biden).

And with mortgage rates up 156% under Biden and housing prices up 32.5% (not to mention the last two jobs reports showed US firms are only hiring part-time workers (and illegal immigrants), the US is experiencing a serious housing affordability crisis.

When people couldn’t afford housing during the Great Depression, they built shantytowns from scrap construction supplies and named them “Hoovervilles,” after President Herbert Hoover. Today, Americans increasingly live out of their cars because they can’t afford housing. If history is any guide, will parking lots full of Americans soon be known as “Bidenvilles”?

The problem has gotten so bad that Sedona, Arizona, recently set aside a parking lot exclusively for these homeless workers. The city is even installing toilets and showers for the new occupants.

Apparently, the City Council thought installing temporary utilities was cheaper than solving the area’s cost-of-living crisis.

And what a crisis it is.

The average home in the city sells for $930,000, while most of the housing available for rent is not apartments, but luxury homes targeted at wealthy people on vacation.

With such a shortage of middle-class housing and with starter homes essentially nonexistent, low- and even middle-income blue-collar workers have nowhere to go at night but their back seat.

Much like America’s Great Depression in the 1930s, this marks a serious regression in our national standard of living. But shantytowns were not prevalent in the 1920s (a decade that began with a depression) or the 1910s. Nor were they ubiquitous following the Panic of 1907, which set off one of the worst recessions in American history.

Indeed, Americans in the Great Depression faced such a cost-of-living crisis that many were forced to accept a standard of living below what their parents and even their grandparents had.

Fast-forward about 90 years, and countless families are in the same boat. Many young people today don’t think they’ll ever be able to achieve the American dream of homeownership that their parents and grandparents achieved. The worst inflation in 40 years, rising interest rates, and a collapse of real (inflation-adjusted) earnings mean a huge step backward financially.

That inflation has pushed up rents so much that young Americans are moving back in with their parents at rates not seen since the Great Depression because they can’t make it on their own. Sometimes, they can’t even make it with multiple roommates.

But many people cannot move back in with family, so the car it is.

The housing problem is not limited to wealthy towns in Arizona, however. It is systemic. The monthly mortgage payment on a median-price home has doubled since January 2021, and rents are at record highs. Like the Great Depression, this disaster stems from impolitic public policy.

For the past several years, the government has spent, borrowed, and created trillions of dollars it didn’t have. The predictable result of this profligacy was runaway inflation, followed by equally foreseeable interest rate increases.

The deadly combination of high prices and high interest rates has frozen the housing market and reduced homeownership affordability metrics to near-record lows. In several major metropolitan areas, it takes more than 100 percent of the median household after-tax income to afford a median-price home.

Since rents and virtually all other prices have risen so much faster than incomes over the past three years, even renting is unaffordable today, so many people have to go into debt to keep a roof over their heads. And for some, that’s a car roof.

This is the kind of story you might expect from a Third World country or somewhere behind the Iron Curtain during the Cold War, not the largest economy in the world—at least not outside of a depression like the one in the 1930s.

Hoover certainly deserved some blame for the Great Depression, but so did the progressives in Congress, who came from both parties and repeatedly voted to meddle in the economy instead of allowing it to recover from the initial downturn.

Similarly, President Joe Biden deserves blame for constantly advocating runaway government spending. (Runaway Joe??)

But today’s multitrillion-dollar deficits are also made possible by the big spenders in Congress, who come from both parties.

If this bipartisan prodigality of Washington continues, Bidenvilles will only become more widespread as the housing affordability crisis worsens.

Biden’s official White House portrait.

Washington DC under Biden and Schumer, Pelosi, etc.

Biden, Schumer Fund Border Defense In Spending Bill! Jordan, Lebanon, Egypt, Tunisia and Oman Get Border Funding, NOT The US (US Falls To 23rd In Global Happiness Ranking)

Biden loves to blame Republicans for the border crisis. Although he has it in his power to close and secure the border, but won’t. It’s easier to blame the opposition, like “extreme MAGA Republicans.” Huh, I didn’t realize that as a conservative American I am considered extreme by the Biden Administration.

Unfortunately, Biden, Schumer and Johnson only provided financial support for Jordan, Lebanon, Egypt, Tunisia and Oman. In the form of $380 million.

As the US falls to 23rd in World Happiness ranking. Based, in part, on Biden’s idiotic open borders policy.

Hey Joe! Food Inflation Is Not Yet Dead (Cocoa, Beef, Coffee Prices Soaring As Deutsche Bank Cuts 3,500 Jobs)

Hey Joe! Food inflation isn’t dead yet!

The Biden Administration which motto should be “Make Crime Great Again!” with awful crime in big cities, and millions pouring over the border, not to mention providing jobs for foreign workers and not native born Americans, is likely breathing a sigh of relief as food inflation falling to 2.7% year-over-year, still higher than pre-Covid levels under Trump. But at least food price inflation is slowing as The Fed’s money stimulus recedes.

But food inflation may not be dead. 

Cocoa prices climbed to a 46-year high this week in New York as concerns about dry conditions across West Africa could reduce yields for the Ivory Coast, the world’s largest producer of cocoa beans, ahead of the mid-crop in April. 

In the US, a rapidly shrinking cattle herd, now at the lowest levels in seven decades, has pushed the supermarket price of beef to a record of $5.21 per pound. Rising food prices are the central bank’s worst enemy. 

To end the week, breakfast lovers will be disappointed to learn robusta bean prices in Vietnam, the world’s largest producer of the bean, are absolutely out of control. 

Local robusta prices in Vietnam hit a record on Thursday, topping nearly 80,000 per kilogram. 

“That’s threatening to push prices in London up further, even after the benchmark capped its own all-time high this week at $3,336 a ton,” Bloomberg said, adding the surge in prices was primarily due to farmers “hoarding” the bean. 

To recap this week, cocoa bean, beef, and robusta bean prices have been marching higher. 

More bad news for Biden. Even though overall food inflation has receded, voters have long memories. 

Speaking of bad news, The Teutonic Titanic (aka, Deutsche Bank) just annouced that it is cutting 3.500 jobs over the next two years.

Down, Down, Down! Cost Of US Debt Surges As Federal Debt Hits $33.71 TRILLION And Unfunded Liabilities Hit $211 TRILLION (Livin’ La Vida Bidenomics!)

The US economy is drowing in debt, going down, down, down.

US Federal debt just hit $33.71 TRILLION. And unfunded liabilities (promises from Uncle Spam) are now $211 TRILLION. That is 526% of the the current debt load. Which means either lots of additional debt, higher tax rates or cuts in entitlements.

The cost of US debt continues to soars as The Fed combats Bidenflation.

But it isn’t just Federal government debt that is exploding under Bidenomics. Consumer credit card debt has exploded under Bidenomics as consumer struggle with inflation.

Livin’ La Vida Biden! And Bidenomics!!!

Like Persistent Inflation, New Home Sales Rise 4.1% MoM In April Despite M2 Money Collapse (Taylor Rule Suggests Target Rate Of 11.78%, So The Fed Is STILL Overstimulating Markets)

Remember when former Fed Chair and current Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that inflation was transitory? As usual, Yellen was wrong. Look at April’s new home sales. Up 4.1% since March even through M2 Money growth has collapsed.

The Taylor Rule, based on Core CPI of 5.25% (persistent, not transitory inflation Janet) suggest a Fed target rate of 11.78%. The Fed is at 5.25% and likely to pause rate hikes and maybe even lower rates again.

One More Hike! Fed Expected To Raise Rates One More Time, Then Start Cutting Rates (Large Bank Failures, Slowing Economy)

Like the Phil Collins song “One More Night”, there will be one more hike.

The Fed Funds Futures data is pointing to one more hike at the upcoming May FOMC meeting. Then reversal of policy.

With the massive bank failures under Clueless Joe, The Fed will intervene to make the problem worse. And with Biden’s insane mortgage policies, Prince’s “Let’s Go Crazy!” is the perfect themesong for Biden and The Fed.

Slippin’ Into Darkness? ISM Manufacturing PMI Crashes To Recessionary Levels As Bank Credit Growth Stalls (Fed Returning To Low Rate Policies)

I read over the weekend that the Biden Administration was planning to unleash its army of social influencers on us to hype Biden’s economic accomplishments before the Presidential election. I am not one of his preferred social influencers. In fact, the US economy is slippin’ into darkness under Biden.

An example is ISM Manufacturing PMI which has declined to a level typically seen in prior recessions.

And then we have US bank credit growth which just crashed to the slowest growth rate since 2014.

The Fed is returning to rate low-riding as the US economy slips into recession,

Great Reset?? US Treasury 10yr Yield Tanks -20 Basis Points (UK 10yr Tanks -24.1 BPS)

As I frequently told my investment and fixed-income securities students at Chicago, Ohio State and George Mason University, any 10 basis point change in the US Treasury 10-year yield is significant.

But how about today’s 20 basis point decline in the US Treasury 10-year yield?

The UK’s 10-year yield is down even more at -24.1 basis points. Germany is down -18 bps and France is down -10.3 bps.

Speaking of credit default swaps, Credit Suisse is back to financial crisis levels while UBS and Deutsche Bank are not … yet.

And gold jumped $28.5 dollars today as POP goes the yield.

With all the turbulence in markets thanks to the war in Ukraine and Biden’s green energy mandates and spending (not to mention Statists like Klaus Schwab screaming about a Great Reset), I was reminiscing about more simple times.

Lehman Debacle 2? Credit Suisse Market Turmoil Deepens After CEO Memo Backfires (Credit Suisse’s CDS Now Higher Than During 2008-2009 Financial Crisis)

  • New CEO Koerner sought to reassure employees in Friday memo
  • Shares fall to a fresh record low, gauge of credit risk rises

It is like the Lehman Brothers debacle in 2008 all over again.

(Bloomberg) — Credit Suisse Group AG was plunged into fresh market turmoil after Chief Executive Officer Ulrich Koerner’s attempts to reassure employees and investors backfired, adding to uncertainty surrounding the bank.

The stock, which had already more than halved this year before Monday’s sell-off, fell as much as 12% in Zurich trading to a record low that values the firm at less than $10 billion. That was accompanied by a spike in the cost to insure the bank’s debt against default, which jumped to its highest ever.

Koerner, for the second time in as many weeks, had sought to calm employees and the markets with a memo late Friday stressing the bank’s liquidity and capital strength. Instead, it focused attention on the dramatic recent moves in the firm’s stock price and credit spreads, and investors rushed for the exit when trading reopened after the weekend.

One notable difference between 2008 and today is that Credit Suisse’s equity was flying high in June 2007 then crashed a the global banking crisis went into full motion. We then saw Credit Suisse’s credit default swaps soar in early 2009. But today Credit Suisse’s equity is a pale imitation of its former self, but its credit default swap is now higher than it was at its peak in early 2009.

Credit Suisse is now trading lower than its European rival Deutsche Bank (aka, The Teutonic Titanic).

Yes, this brings back sickening memories of the 2008-2009 global financial crisis. Let’s see how The Federal Reserve, ECB and Bank of Switzerland handle this debacle, particularly with M2 Money growth so low.

It appears that we are in another Lehman debacle. Or should I say “Lemur Bros.”