US Treasury 10Y-2Y Yield Curve Stumbles To -91.166 BPS As 30Y Mortgage Rates Climb To 7.37% (30Y Mortgage Rate UP 156% Under Bidenomics) Since November 3, 2022, US Dollar Index DOWN -9.68%, Gold UP 18.55%, Bitcoin UP 51.11%!

I am anxiously waiting for the US inflation report tomorrow, so I am just looking at the US Treasury yield curve, mortgage rates and cryptos today.

The US Treasury 10Y-2Y yield curve stumbled (just like Biden and Bidenomics) to -91.166 basis points as the turnaround in M2 Money growth has stalled. Bankrate’s 30Y mortgage rate is up to 7.37%, that is UP 156% under Bidenomics.

Bitcoin is down today. At least Solana is up.

Since November 3, 2022, the US Dollar Index is DOWN -9.68%, Gold is UP 18.55% and Bitcoin (Elizabeth Warren’s latest obsession) is UP 51.11%.

Bidenomics! Bank Credit Slows To 0.5% YoY, Lowest Since 2011 As Fed Hikes To Fight Bidenflation (41+ Countries Sign On For BRICs Gold Standard)

Bidenomics relied of massive Federal spending thanks to Covid and massive monetary expansion. This led to the highest inflation in 40 years (Bidenflation). But now The Fed is slowing M2 Money growth into negative territory and hiking their target rate.

The result? Bank credit growth has crashed to 0.5% YoY. In other words, banks are no longer expanding credit for the first time since the aftermanth of The Great Recession and Financial Crisis of 2008/2009. Of course, Washington DC bailed out their bestest buddies, the banks, while middle America suffered.

As America loses steam under Biden and The Fed, 41+ countries have signed on to the BRICs gold-backed reserve currency. Unlike the USA with its fiat currency (backed by Babbling Biden and Janet “The Midget Marxist” Yellen), this reserve currency will be backed by gold.

Speaking of Yellen, she met the Chinese vice-Chairman (their version of Cacklin’ Kamala) and bowed three times. And the Chinese official didn’t return the bows. Way to capitulate Janet!!

32 Tons! Corporate Bankruptcies Reach Highest Level Since 2010, Bank Term Funding Program At $102 BILLION (Total Debt & Unfunded Liabitilies = $224.5 TRILLION)

The US has passed the 32 trillion mark in national debt, and is going much, much higher. More like 32 tons on the back of taxpayers. When we add unfunded liabilities like Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, the tab soars to $224.5 TRILLION.

New data show that a growing number of U.S. firms are collapsing under the weight of higher interest rates as corporate bankruptcies reached their highest first-half levels since 2010.

In the first six months of 2023, there were 340 corporate bankruptcies, topping every other comparable span in 13 years, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. This is up 93 percent from the same time a year ago and higher than in 2020, when there was a spike during the early days of the coronavirus pandemic.

There were 54 recorded corporate bankruptcy filings in June, unchanged from the 54 bankruptcies in May. Last month, some of the most notable companies to submit filings were Lordstown Motors, Rockport Co., Instant Brands Acquisition Holdings, and iMedia Brands.

“Lordstown Motors Corp. filed for bankruptcy June 27, with plans to restructure its business and seek a buyer, according to a company release. The electric vehicle manufacturer’s assets include its Endurance pickup truck and related resources,” S&P noted in the July 6 report.

“Instant Brands Acquisition Holdings Inc. also sought bankruptcy protection June 12. The tightening of credit terms and higher interest rates had impacted the company’s liquidity levels, according to an official release. The company has also already secured $132.5 million from existing lenders and plans to continue discussions with its financial stakeholders.”

Year-to-date through June, 15 companies with more than $1 billion in liabilities filed for bankruptcy, such as Cyxtera Technologies, Diebold Holding, Bed Bath & Beyond, Diamond Sports Group., and Party City.

Epiq Bankruptcy, a U.S. bankruptcy filing data provider, confirmed that 2,973 total commercial Chapter 11 bankruptcies were filed in the first half of 2023, up 68 percent from the same period in 2022.

Higher Interest Rates Impacting Businesses

Banking experts purport that higher interest rates are the leading cause of the increase in corporate bankruptcies. Many businesses either maintain vast debt loans that will require refinancing or need more liquidity to stay afloat.

“The increase in commercial and individual bankruptcy filings during the first half of 2023 underscores the economic challenges faced by businesses and individuals,” said Mr. Gregg Morin, Vice President of Business Development and Revenue at Epiq Bankruptcy, in the report. “Our objective is to provide bankruptcy professionals with timely and accurate data necessary for analyzing stakeholder volumes and trends for making informed business decisions.”

The situation could be exacerbated should the Federal Reserve pull the trigger on two more rate hikes this year. The futures market is penciling in a quarter-point boost to the benchmark fed funds rate at this month’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy meeting.

Meanwhile, according to a recent Fitch Ratings report, the corporate default rate is projected to climb to as high as 4.5 percent in 2023, up from the previous forecast low of 2.5 percent. The updated projections reflected “the tighter lending conditions and capital access resulting from stress in the banking sector and inflation uncertainty.”

However, some argue that corporate bond market indicators are “less ominous.”

“The interest rate differentials, or spreads, between the 10-year U.S. Treasury note and investment grade (IG) and high yield (HY) corporate bonds continue to hover within their average width over the past 25 years, a bond market signal indicating the likelihood of a less severe recession, with traders pricing in fewer corporate defaults,” wrote John Lynch, the CIO at Comerica Wealth Management, in a research note.

Economists contend that the worst corporate bankruptcies typically occur one or two years into a recession. Today, they are happening before the official start of an economic downturn as the U.S. economy is still expanding.

What’s happening?

“Simple,” says Mr. Pete St. Onge, a Heritage Foundation economist, “banks aren’t lending.”

“Banks are battening down the hatches, hogging their bailout money instead of lending it out,” he said in a recent podcast. “That credit crunch means not only do we get bankruptcies like in any recession, on top of that, we get a lending wall that cuts off even the healthy businesses. Of course, their jobs go down with them.”

Since the Federal Reserve launched the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) following the Silicon Valley Bank collapse in March, financial institutions have kept tapping into these emergency lending facilities. After hitting a record high at above $103 billion at the end of June, it remains elevated at $102 billion.


32.5 trillion in debt and $192 trillion in unfunded liabilities which means a total of $224.5 total debt + liabilities.

This is Bidenomics. Spend trillions, borrow trillions, promise entitlements. Rinse, repeat.

Biden’s Build Back Better Now Build Back Bankrupt! Commercial Chapter 11 Filings Increased 68 Percent in the First Half of 2023 (Rising Rates Thanks To Bidenflation)

Biden’s massive spending spree (aka, Build Back Better) has a new name: Build Back Bankrupt!

According to Epiq, Commercial Chapter 11 Filings Increased 68 Percent in the First Half of 2023.

NEW YORK – July 03, 2023  The 2,973 total commercial Chapter 11 bankruptcies filed during the first six months of 2023 represented a 68 percent increase over the 1,766 filed during the same period in 2022, according to data provided by Epiq Bankruptcy, the leading provider of U.S. bankruptcy filing data. Individual Chapter 13 filings increased by 23 percent during the same period.

Overall commercial filings registered 12,107 for the first half of 2023, representing an 18 percent increase from the commercial filing total of 10,258 for the first half of 2022. Small business filings, captured as Subchapter V elections within Chapter 11, totaled 814 in the first six months of 2023, a 55 percent increase from the 525 elections during the same period in 2022.

Overall commercial filings increased 12 percent in June 2023, as the 2,123 filings were up from the 1,891 commercial filings registered in June 2022. The 404 commercial Chapter 11 filings in June represented a 9 percent increase from the 371 filings in June 2022. Total Subchapter V elections within Chapter 11, experienced a 111 percent increase from 94 in June 2022 to 198 in June 2023.

“The increase in commercial and individual bankruptcy filings during the first half of 2023 underscores the economic challenges faced by businesses and individuals,” said Gregg Morin, Vice President of Business Development and Revenue at Epiq Bankruptcy. “Our objective is to provide bankruptcy professionals with timely and accurate data necessary for analyzing stakeholder volumes and trends for making informed business decisions.”

Total bankruptcy filings were 217,420 during the first six months of 2023, a 17 percent increase from the 185,352 total filings during the same period a year ago. Total individual filings also registered a 17 percent increase, as the 205,313 filings during the first half of 2023 were up from the 175,094 filings during the first six months of 2022. The 85,390 individual Chapter 13 filings in the first half of 2023 represent a 23 percent increase over the 69,367 filings during the same period in 2022.

All chapters increased in June 2023 compared to June 2022, with 37,700 total bankruptcy filings representing an increase of 17 percent from the 32,198 filed in 2022. Total commercial filings were up 12 percent from 1,891. Total Individuals were up 18 percent from 30,307.

While not the Epiq data, the Bloomberg Corp Bankruptcy Index shows the rise in bankruptcies as The Fed fights Bidenflation.

ADP Jobs Added 497k In June! Almost Guarantees Another Rate Hike At July FOMC Meeting, 10Y T-Yield UP >10 BPS, 2Y T-Yield UP 16 BPS (Yellen Goes To China?) Bitcoin Cash UP 10%

The good news (if true)? ADP announced that 497k jobs were added in June.

The bad news? A 497k print on jobs (many seasonal, it is summer!) almost guarantees that The FOMC (Fed Open Market Committe) will raises rates again at at the July meeting.

The 2-year Treasury yield is up over 10 basis points.

The 2-year Treasury yield is up 16.5 basis points.

Bticoin Cash is up 10% today.

I should have bought nickel!

Why is Biden sending Treasury Secretary Janet “The Marxist Midget” Yellen to China? A Treasury Secretary and former Federal Reserve Chair? Likely trying to convince China that our $32 TRILLLION AND GROWING national debt is not a problem, since China is the third largest holder of US Treasury debt (after The Fed and Japan). Note that China has decreased its holdings of US Treasuries by -25.6% since January 2018.

Hopefully, Yellen isn’t acting as a bag man for The Biden Crime Family. 10% for The Big Guy?? How much does Yellen get??

US Mortgage Purchase Demand Down -42.3% Under Bidenomics, Mortgage Refi Demand Down -91%, Mortgage Rates UP 131% (As Liquidity Dries Up)

Joe Biden, or “Blow Biden” after the cocaine was discovered in the White House the other day, owns the abysmal mortgage and housing market thanks to The Fed fighting inflation caused by Bidenomics (massive Federal spending and massive Fed stimulus).

Mortgage applications decreased 4.4 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending June 30, 2023. Last week’s results included an adjustment for the Juneteenth holiday.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 4.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 6 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 4 percent from the previous week and was 30 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 5 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 6 percent compared with the previous week and was 22 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

Here is the rest on the story:

As liquidity dries up under Bidenomics. Or Yellenomics. Take your pick!

Seriously, can The Biden Administration get any more embarrassing? Or dangerous to American civil liberties?

Bidenomics! US Factory Orders Decline YoY For First Time Since Oct 2020 As Fed Retreats (Economy Is Slip, Slidin’ Away!)

The closer we get to the 2024 Presidential election, the more the economy is slip slidin’ away.

As Powell and The Gang raise interest rates, the more the economy is … slip slidin’ away. US Manufacturers New Orders YoY in May declined -1.0% for the first time since Covid.

But as M2 Money growth slows, its getting late in the election cycle.

Too soon?

Happy 4th Of July! CRB Foodstuffs Index UP 49% Since Biden Was Installed As President (Much Worse Than Reported 15% Additional Cost To 4th Of July Under Biden)

Happy 4th of July! Enjoy those burgers and hot dogs, at least until you consider that food prices have risen a staggering 49% under Biden’s Reign of Economic Error.

This is much worse than the quoted story that Fourth of July cookout costs 15% more since Biden took office. Broken out by components,

The only good news is that The Fed’s monetary stimulus growth is slowing. But don’t worry! Biden and Congress will keep introduce massive spending bills to avert a recession. Which will cause downline inflation.

My favorite hot dog place, Chicago’s Wolfy’s!

Addicted To Gov! Mortgage Rates UP 150% Under Biden, 10Y-2Y Most Inverted Since 1981 (Unfunded Liabilities 5x National Debt) Gold, Silver UP

Its the 4th of July, American Independence Day from England, but under Biden and The Federal Reserve, Americans are DEPENDENT on debt and Federal spending. In other words, Americans are addicted to gov.

First, Bankrate’s 30-year mortgage rate index is up 150% under Biden. You can see the rapid rise in mortgage rates started with Biden (orange box). Meanwhile, the US Treasury yield curve (10Y-2Y) is the most inverted (negative slope) since 1981. Way to go, Joe!!

On the metals side, gold and silver are up slightly. (Go silver go!!)

On the crypto side, Polkadot is up 1.26% while Bitcoin is down -0.18%.

Memo To Fed: keep on printing! Why? US debt is currently $32.33 TRILLION with $192 TRILLION in unfunded Federal liabilties. That is 5 times the current level of debt!!

US Manufacturing Activity Shrinks By Most in Three Years As Cardboard Box Shipments Declining At Fastest Rate Since Financial Crisis) Ethereum UP >2% This AM

I was hoping that the week of July 4th would start off with fireworks, but we got bad news about the economy.

US factory activity contracted for an eighth month in June, slipping to the weakest level in more than three years as production, employment and input prices retreated.

The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing gauge fell to 46, the weakest since May 2020, from 46.9 a month earlier, according to data released Monday. The current stretch of readings below 50, which indicates shrinking activity, is the longest since 2008-2009.

The decline in the ISM production gauge, which also stands at the lowest level since May 2020, suggests demand for merchandise remains weak. The index of new orders contracted for the 10th straight month and order backlogs shrank, which may help explain a pullback in a measure of manufacturing employment.

The ISM gauge retreated to a three-month low and, at 48.1, indicates fewer producers adding to payrolls.

Many Americans continue to limit their spending on merchandise as they rotate to services and experiences. Others are simply tightening their belts as still-high inflation takes a toll on their incomes.

And then we have cardboard box shipments declining at fastest rate since 2008/2009.

At least Ethereum is up over 2% this morning.

And the US Treasury 10Y-2Y keeps on diving deeper into inversion.

Joe Biden, the face of Bidenomics.