Well its about time that homebuilder started building again! And maybe it was The Fed rate hike pause (and possible rate cuts in the future.
US new home sales rose 20% in May as The Fed pauses rate hikes.
Fed Funds Futures point to one or two more rate hikes, then down she goes!!!
763k new homes were added in May
Remember, there is still a lot of stimulus (M2) sloshing around the economy. Perhaps we can rename all the infrastructure stimulus that is leaking out into the economy “Buttigieg Bucks.” Or “Buty Bucks!”
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a -0.2% annual decrease in April, down from a gain of 0.7% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite showed a decrease of -1.2%, down from the -0.7% decrease in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a -1.7% year-over-year loss, down from -1.1% in the previous month.
The winners in April? Miami and … Chicago?
The biggest losers in April? Seattle and San Francisco both suffered YoY losses over -11%.
The US Treasury 10Y-2Y yield curve remains steeply inverted at -97 basis points.
Texas factory activity declined in June, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, fell three points to -4.2, a reading indicative of a slight contraction in output.
Labor market measures suggest weaker employment growth and declining work hours. Price pressures evaporated, while wage pressures remained elevated…
Yes, the Biden Administration may be the most incompetent administration in US history with Congress a close second. And did I mention CORRUPT??
Silverado! No, not the Chevy full-size pickup truck, but the precious metal Silver is up over 1% this morning!
The US Treasury 10Y-2Y yield curve remains inverted at -102.7 basis points for the 244th straight day as M2 Money YoY (aka, liquidity) evaporates.
Silver is up over 1% this morning.
Bitcoin Cash is up12.39% this morning.
Speaking of Silverado, a fully loaded new 2023 Chevy Silverado 1500 ZR2 costs around $100,000. Thanks Biden and Powell (BiPow?). Try financing that purchase with auto loan rates soaring!
Yes, the ECB’s own Fabio … Panetta wants to ban any competition to Central Bank printing presses. Of course, like Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and SEC’s Gary “The Ghoul” Genslar, he wants to protect The Deep State’s monopoly on money printing by banning competition.
According to Fabio Panetta, crypto volatility and aspects of blockchain technology made digital assets only suitable for gambling…
Fabio Panetta, an executive board member of the European Central Bank (ECB), has suggested a dark future for cryptocurrencies, in which digital assets may be used for little more than gambling among investors.
In written remarks for a panel at the Bank for International Settlements Annual Conference on June 23, Panetta said crypto’s perception among investors as a “robust store of value” began to dissipate in late 2021 and into 2022, when the total market capitalization fell by more than $1 trillion. According to the ECB official, the “highly volatile” nature of crypto assets made them suitable for gambling, and should be treated as such by global lawmakers.
“Due to their limitations, cryptos have not developed into a form of finance that is innovative and robust, but have instead morphed into one that is deleterious,” said Panetta.
“The crypto ecosystem is riddled with market failures and negative externalities, and it is bound to experience further market disruptions unless proper regulatory safeguards are put in place.”
He added:
“Policymakers should be wary of supporting an industry that has so far produced no societal benefits and is increasingly trying to integrate into the traditional financial system, both to acquire legitimacy as part of that system and to piggyback on it.”
Panetta claimed the “security, scalability and decentralisation” of crypto transactions was “not achievable,” saying the immutability of blockchains is a negative aspect of the space due to transactions often being unable to be reversed. He cited the collapse of FTX, as well as a recent lawsuit brought by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission again Binance, as “fundamental shortcomings” of the ecosystem.
“Crypto enthusiasts would do well to remember that new technology does not make financial risk disappear,” said the ECB official.
“It is like pressing a balloon on one side: it will change in shape until it pops on the other side. And if the balloon is full of hot air, it may rise for a while but will burst in the end.”
Panetta has previously backed parts of the ECB’s plans for a potential digital euro, currently being researched by the central bank.
He has also proposed banning crypto assets with an “excessive ecological footprint” as part of efforts to address risks to the environment.
Panetta is similar to anti-competition Statists like Senator Elizabeth Warren and SEC’s Gary “The Ghoul” Genslar who don’t want competition for The Fed’s massive printing press.
We know that Bitcoin along with Gold and Silver have done well the September 2022 when the US Dollar began to lose value.
Today, we are seeing a slight up-tick in Bitcoin (+0.05%) and Ethereum (+0.60%).
Money supply growth fell again in April from Jerome Powell And The Fed, plummeting further into negative territory after turning negative in November 2022 for the first time in twenty-eight years. April’s drop continues a steep downward trend from the unprecedented highs experienced during much of the past two years.
Yes, The Fed is printing money like it is going out of style! The war on Covid was similar to other wars fought where the US printed boatloads of money to pay for WWI. WWII, Korea and Vietnam wars. And the war against the middle class (known as The Best Depression). Apparently, The Fed is still waging war against the middle class.
US M2 Money VELOCITY (GDP/M2) is near an all-time low after The Fed went berserk with money printing to combat the Covid economic and school shutdowns.
Then with The Fed’s massive monetary expansion and sudden contraction, we have REAL average weekly earnings growth YoY in negative territory for 25 straight months.
The Walking Dead’s Negan, the poster child for The Federal Reserve.
Well, with Jerome Powell And The Fed tightening monetary policy (about half way there!), we have seen competitors to the US Dollar Bitcoin and Gold have soared since September 26, 2022. Bitcoin is up 61%, Gold is up 18% and the US Dollar is down -10%.
Mortgage rates hover around 7% as the US Treasury 10-2Y curve inverts to over -100 basis points with M2 Money growth crashed and burned.
I could have used 3 shades of Joe, but 50 shades of Joe sounds better!
But the fact remains that Americans are far more miserable under Biden than they were under Trump before the Chinese Wuhan Covid virus was unleashed. 9.03 today (Core CPI YoY + U-3 Unemployment) than it was in February 2020 under Trump (5.86). While not twice as bad, inflation is continues to cause serious problems for America’s middle class and low-wage workers.
Speaking of the middle class and low wage workers, let’s look at the Renter’s Misery index (CPI Owner’s equivalent rent YoY + Unemployment rate). It was 6.78% in February 2020 under Trump and before Covid struck and is now 11.75% under Inflation Joe.
Speaking of misery, how 25 straight months of negative REAL wage growth? Real weekly wage growth went negative in April 2021, just a few months after Biden was installed as President.
Now, there was winners under Biden. Green energy donors, the big banks, big pharma, big tech, but media … essentially any big donors from big entities got massive payoffs. The middle class and low-wage workers? As Jerry Reid once sang, “They got the coal mine and we got the shaft.”
The US is Living La Vida Biden (living the Biden life!) Which means you are making millions if you are a political elite, but suffering if you live on Main Street.
And regional banks (not the TBTF national banks) continue to suffer. The Bank Term Funding Program (1 of 2) is skyrocketing as The Fed cranks up rates to fight BidenFedflation (a combination of excessive monetary stimulus by The Fed and Biden’s lousy economic policies) and M2 Money growth crashes.
The regional banking index continues to fall as bank deposits shrink (like me when I used to jump in the Pacific Ocean in Santa Cruz).
Cryptos down this morning. But Bitcoin is above $30,000 … again.
Oil is down this morning but gold and silver are up slightly.
The 10Y-2Y US Treasury yield curve just dipped below -100 basis points (steep inversion) as M2 Money growth crashed and burned.
Like a bad good news, bad news joke, the good news is that US existing home sales ROSE 0.2% in May. The bad news? Existing home sales are DOWN -23.16% on a year-over-year basis.
And the median price of existing home sales fell -3.44% YoY as inventory for sales remains missing in action (like Biden debating Democrat challengers).
Confounded Interest - Anthony B. Sanders 
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